2018 - Team Ratings After Round 17

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MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS had different opinions about what the Giants v Tigers game revealed of the relative abilities of those two teams, MoSSBODS focusing solely on the Tigers' superior scoring shot count, but MoSHBODS also looking at the final score.

As a result, Richmond's rating rose slightly on MoSSBODS and fell on MoSHBODS, but not enough to see them slip from top spot, which they still hold on both Systems. Conversely, GWS's rating fell slightly on MoSSBODS and rose on MoSHBODS, so much so that it grabbed 2nd place in MoSHBODS' eyes.

So, MoSSBODS now has a Top 4 of Richmond, Melbourne, GWS, and then Geelong, while MoSHBODS has Richmond, GWS, Melbourne, and then West Coast. 

Only six teams moved on MoSSBODS this week, and none by more than a single spot. MoSHBODS re-ranked the same number of teams but included amongst those moves two spot hikes for GWS and West Coast, and a three spot fall for Collingwood.

That left the two Systems agreeing about the ranking of eight teams, and differing in the ranking of the other 10 by no more than two places.

A number of teams towards the top of the ratings remain quite similarly rated. On MoSSBODS, the gap between Melbourne in 2nd and West Coast in 6th is only 2 Scoring Shots, while on MoSHBODS, the gap between GWS in 2nd and Geelong in 6th is only 5.2 points.

Looking next at the component ratings, we see that:

  • MoSSBODS still has a Top 3 on offence of Melbourne, Richmond, and then GWS, and a Top 3 on defence of Richmond, Port Adelaide and then Collingwood
  • MoSHBODS' now has a Top 3 on offence of Melbourne, Richmond, and then GWS, the top two having swapped places this week
  • MoSHBODS' now has a Top 3 on defence of Richmond, Port Adelaide, and then GWS, with Geelong falling from 3rd to 8th after conceding 32 scoring shots and 112 points to Adelaide.

Across all 18 teams we find that:

  • North Melbourne is ranked 10th on Offence by MoSSBODS, and 7th by MoSHBODS
  • Hawthorn is ranked 4th on Defence by MoSSBODS and 7th by MoSHBODS

No other team is ranked more than two places differently on either component by the two Systems.

In the latest version of the animated GIF, which appears below, we can see the relatively small changes in rating for most of the teams this week.

On offence, the only teams moving up or down by more than 0.5 Scoring Shots were:

  • Adelaide +1.0
  • St Kilda +1.0
  • West Coast +0.8
  • Port Adelaide -0.9
  • Hawthorn -0.5

While on defence, the only teams moving up or down by more than 0.5 Scoring Shots were:

  • Fremantle +0.9
  • Brisbane Lions +0.5
  • Geelong -1.0
  • Carlton -1.0
  • Collingwood -0.8
MoSSBODS Ratings At End of Rounds 1 to 17 - Smooth.gif

Relative to history, Richmond's Combined Rating remains in the top decile of teams at this point in the season that ultimately played in the Grand Final. No other team is above even the median Combined Rating at the end of Round 17 of previous Top 2 finishers, although Melbourne is quite close.

As things stand now:

  • six teams have a positive offensive and a positive defensive rating (up one from last week)
  • none has a positive offensive and a negative defensive rating (unchanged from last week)
  • five have a negative offensive and a positive defensive rating (down two from last week)
  • seven have a negative offensive and a negative defensive rating (up one from last week)

In total, only six teams now have a positive offensive rating while 11 have a positive defensive rating.

On ChiPS this week, nine teams moved places, six of them by more than a single spot, the number and size of the moves another reflection of the ratings compression that we've been noting amongst the top half of the teams.

West Coast were the big climbers, up five places into 3rd, while Collingwood and Hawthorn were the teams falling furthest, both slipping three places.

On MARS, where ratings have also been quite compressed in recent weeks, more teams were re-ranked (10), but none by more than two spots.

After all the weekend's moves we now have a ratings gap of just over 9 Rating Points between 2nd and 9th on ChiPS, and a ratings gap of just under 12 Rating Points between 3rd and 10th on MARS.

Both Systems agree that the Top 2 teams are, in order, Richmond and Sydney, but ChiPS has West Coast in 3rd while MARS has Melbourne in that position.

The two Systems differ now by more than two places in their rankings only of:

  • Adelaide, ranked 12th on ChiPS and 9th on MARS
  • Port Adelaide, ranked 9th on ChiPS and 6th on MARS

Looking across the team rankings of all four Systems and comparing them with the current competition ladder, we find that:

  • Melbourne, Geelong and Brisbane Lions sit significantly lower on the competition ladder than their ranking on most of the Rating Systems
  • Collingwood sit significantly higher on the competition ladder than their ranking on most of the Rating Systems
  • Sydney (2nd to 9th) is ranked seven places differently across the Rating Systems.
  • GWS (2nd to 8th) is ranked six places differently across the Rating Systems.
  • No other team is ranked more than three places differently across the Rating Systems.