2018 - Round 27 : Overs/Unders Update

There’s again very little debate amongst our four score forecasters this week, with all of them predicting totals in the 158 to 162.5 range, and victory margins for Collingwood in the 6 to 12 point range.

They have West Coast scoring between 73 and 78 points, and Collingwood between 83 and 85 points.

(Note that I'm still using "Centrebet" to refer to what are now BetEasy forecasts.)


The estimated overlays this week are only 2 to 4 points, so Investors once again have no money in jeopardy - or, if you’re more a glass half-full person, no upside.

Here’s the detail.


MoSSBODS finished on the right side of TAB and Centrebet totals in only one of the two games last week, while MoSHBODS managed one from two against Centrebet, but none from two against the TAB.

That left MoSSBODS' with a season-long 49% record against the TAB and against Centrebet, and left MoSHBODS with a 47% record against the TAB and a 49% record against Centrebet.

There were no unders/overs bets last week, so MoSSBODS overall strike rate on overs bets remained at 37% and on unders bets at 56%.

On the mean absolute error (MAE) metric, the TAB and Centrebet registered joint-lowest MAEs this week on game margins, while the TAB registered the lowest MAE for home team scores and game totals, leaving Centrebet to record the lowest MAE for away team scores.

That left Centrebet still leading on the season-long view for home team scores (MAE of 17.2) and game margins (26.3), and the TAB still leading on away team scores (17.5) and game totals (22.4).