2017 - Round 11 Results - Better Than Expected

If you'd offered me, on Thursday afternoon, a 3.4 from 6 average for the Head-to-Head Tipsters and a sub 21 all-Predictor mean absolute error (MAE) for the Margin Predictors, I'm fairly certain I'd have signed for it.

That 3.4 average for the Head-to-Head Tipsters came about because four of the nine, including the three leading Tipsters, scored 4 from 9, and the remaining five Tipsters scored 3 from 9. As a result, the top of the Leaderboard remains unchanged. The high-water mark is now 61 from 95 (64%).

Amongst the Margin Predictors it was a return to margin forecasting form for MoSSBODS_Marg, whose 17.5 MAE moved it to within 19 points of the top-ranking MoSHBODS_Marg.

Overall, the ranking of the Predictors remained unchanged bar the switching of 6th and 7th positions between Bookie_9 and Bookie_Hcap.

The all-Predictor MAE for the round was 20.9 points per game, which left the all-Predictor all-season MAE at just over 30 points per game per Predictor. Four Predictors have sub-30 MAEs for the season. As well, every Margin Predictor except Bookie_3 and C_Marg now have season-long profitable line-betting records.

Best probability score for the round belonged to MoSSBODS_Prob, ahead of MoSHBODS_Prob and C_Prob. MoSHBODS_Prob did enough though with its second-best probability score to retain top spot on the Leaderboard; C_Prob didn't do anywhere near enough with its third-best probability score to move up from last position.


It was a profitable round for all three Funds this week, the fourth time that this has been the case in the past five rounds.

Over the weekend, the Head-to-Head Fund rose by 3.3c on a 4 from 5 performance, the Line Fund rose by 3.7c on a 3 from 4 performance, while the Over/Under Fund rose by 1.5c on a 2 from 3 performance. In total that lifted the Overall Portfolio by 2.7c, taking its price to $1.207.

That profit for the week extends the streak of net collect weekends to six. It is fun while it's lasting, but I've a long memory and no delusions about any indefinite extension of that streak.