2017 - Round 14 : Overs/Unders Update
/This week it's the Lions v Giants game that's expected to crack the 200 total according to all four forecasters, with the Giants projected to score about 60% of that total.
Adelaide, though, are forecast to score about half a goal more than GWS, joined by Geelong and St Kilda as the only teams expected to score more than 100 points.
MoSSBODS has Hawthorn as the low-scoring team of the round, while MoSHBODS has Carlton, and the two bookmakers Fremantle. All forecast these teams to score less than 70 points.
All four agree that the Richmond v Carlton clash is likely to be the round's low-scoring game, producing somewhere in the vicinity of 150 to 160 points.
Overall, the MoS twins again have the away teams scoring slightly fewer points than do the TAB and Centrebet bookmakers, with the result that the twins expect the average margins to finish about 2 to 3 points higher from the viewpoint of the home teams.
WAGERS
Three more opportunities for wagers this week, but fewer wagers nonetheless, sufficient overlay appearing in just three of the nine games.
The overlay is especially healthy in the Collingwood v Port Adelaide game, which MoSSBODS has as a 188 total to the bookmakers' 173 to 175. In the Dogs v Roos game the overlay is barely sufficient for a wager, while in the Tigers v Blues game it's more comfortable and almost double-digit.
Last week saw the TAB do best or equal-best on mean absolute error (MAE) for Margin, Home Score and Away Score, Centrebet tying with it on the first and last of those metrics. MoSHBODS did best on Totals.
That leaves MoSHBODS still with the best season-long performance on game Margin and Away team scores, and sees Centrebet move into 1st on Home scores and TAB into 1st on Totals.
MoSSBODS, after recording a 4 from 5 result last week, now has a 59 from 108 (55%) season-long record against TAB Totals. MoSHBODS' is 58 from 108 (54%). Against Centrebet, MoSSBODS also has a 59 from 108 (55%) record, compared to MoSHBODS' impressive 62 from 108 (57%).
