2017 - Round 14 : You Get a Game, and You Get a Game - Everyone Gets a Game!

With the byes now behind us until the end of the home-and-away season, we return this week to a full deck of nine games.

In all but one of those games, the Head-to-Head Tipsters are either unanimous or prevented from being so by either Consult The Ladder or Home Sweet Home. Only in the Collingwood v Port Adelaide game is there any wider debate, the Pies having attracted four contrarian Tipsters in that contest.

Across the nine games, the all-Tipster Disagreement Index is just 14%, which is the equal third-lowest value it's taken on for a single round this season. Maybe I need to bring back some more of the Heuristic Tipsters to crank up the diversity of opinion (albeit generally under-informed).

There's even less divergence amongst the Margin Predictors who've collectively produced the lowest all-Predictor mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the season. It's just 3.4 points per game per Predictor and only reaches that level thanks to the 7.1 MAD in Thursday's Adelaide v Hawthorn game, lifted mostly by Bookie_9 (Adelaide by 37) and C_Marg (Adelaide by 68). 

There are though, Predictors on either side of zero in the Collingwood v Port Adelaide game, though they span a range of only about one goal either side. 

C_Marg, again, has the round's largest MAD, though at a relatively subdued 5.8 points per game, which is almost 3 points below its season average.

Every Predictor except Bookie_9 and ENS_Linear has produced a below season-average MAD this week.

There's also relatively low variability across the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors this week, the all-Predictor average of 2.6% points per Predictor per game the lowest for the season.

Only in the West Coast v Melbourne game does the MAD rise above 4% points per Predictor. In that game the MAD is 4.2% points per Predictor and the range is just 12% points, from MoSSBODS_Prob's 57% to Bookie_LPSO's 69%.

C_Prob has the round's highest MAD though at a season-low 3.4% points per game.

This week, perhaps more than any other, the MoS forecasters will star or stumble as one.


All of the week's head-to-head and line wagering is this week concentrated in the first six games of the round and on just six teams.

The Head-to-Head Fund has three wagers totalling just under 3% of original funds, while the Line Fund has four wagers totalling just under 4%. 

The bulk of the upside is borne by Adelaide, the Brisbane Lions, and Melbourne, each of which could add about 1c to the price of the Overall Portfolio. Downside is attached mostly to the fates of Adelaide, Collingwood and Melbourne.

In total, just over 2% of the Overall Portfolio is at risk, and a best-case set of results is capable of adding just over 3% to that Portfolio.


Here are the MoS twins' views on team and total scoring for the week.

Commentary to follow.