2017 - Round 12 : Seven Games, Five Days

Doubtless there are good financial reasons for it, but the commencement of bye rounds on Thursday nights has always seemed a bit odd to me. All the moreseo this week where we also have the traditional June long-weekend Monday fixture, which means that the round's seven games are to be sprinkled across five different days.

Those seven games, according to the Head-to-Head Tipsters, offer relatively scant opportunity for upsets. Amongst their number, only Consult The Ladder, Home Sweet Home, MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg are predicting such an outcome in any of the games. Only the Western Bulldogs and Collingwood have corralled more than a single dissenter.

In three of the games though, the majority of the Margin Predictors are forecasting single-digit margins so, on that basis, underdog wins might not be as unlikely as the Head-to-Head Tipsters' near-unanimity would suggest.

The week's extreme margin forecasts are spread out across seven different Predictors, C_Marg in that position in four games, Bookie_9 in three, Bookie_3 and MoSSBODS_Marg in two, and RSMP_Weighted, ENS_Linear and MoSHBODS_Marg in one each.

That's left C_Marg, yet again, with the round's largest mean absolute deviation (MAD), a mantle it's held for the last seven weeks.

MoSSBODS_Marg has the second-largest MAD of the round, a position it too has held for the previous seven weeks, which proves that it is possible to be different without being daft.

Looking from a game-by-game perspective, it's the Essendon v Port Adelaide clash that has the highest MAD, the value in that game driven up by 25+ forecasts from C_Marg and the MoS twins for Port Adelaide's victory margin.

For the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, the widest range of forecasts has also come in that game, topped by Bookie_LPSO's 37% estimate of the Dons' chances, and tailed by C_Prob's 17% estimate.

Every Predictor is most extreme in at least one game this week, though C_Prob has managed it in five, which has left it with the round's largest MAD for the sixth time in seven weeks. You can't fault the ChiPS System for its bravery, though you'd be fully entitled this year to raise an eyebrow or two at its performances.


This week brings just three head-to-head and four line wagers, the seven of them representing almost 10% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, but only 6% of the original Line Fund.

The Pies carry almost half of the upside and about 40% of the downside this week, with less than two goals representing the difference between a 2c gain and a 2c loss for the Overall Portfolio.

Port Adelaide holds most of the remaining upside and downside risk, though its best and worst outcomes are separated by almost a goal more than Collingwood's.

In aggregate, the wagers so far carry an upside of 4.6c and a downside of 4.3c. That's the smallest aggregate downside Investors have faced in a single round across head-to-head and line bets this season.


Here are the MoS twins' views on team and total scoring for the week.

Commentary to follow.