2017 - Round 11 : Small Round, Small Margins?

For those of us who love the 9-game form of the AFL round, the 6-game version seems like football's T20. (And, yeah, I'm going to leave that analogy alone now because I don't think it'll carry me very far).

Still, the six we've got include four where the predicted margin is less than two goals, so it's tough to complain about the likely quality of what's on offer.

Across those six games, the Head-to-Head Tipsters have found unanimity in two, tipping Port Adelaide and GWS in those, and find Home Sweet Home (HSH) as the only dissenting voice in two more, all except HSH tipping Adelaide and West Coast for those contests.

In the two other games, HSH is joined by C_Marg and MoSHBODS_Marg in predicting an upset Roos win over the Tigers, and the two RSMP Tipsters have formed a bloc with C_Marg and the two MoS twins to give the underdog Fremantle 5-4 Tipster favouritism over Collingwood.

It's a similar split for the Margin Predictors though the widest divergences of margin opinion amongst them come in two games where they're unanimous in their choice of victor. In the Port Adelaide v Hawthorn game the predicted margins span a 20-point range and have a 6.8 points per Predictor mean absolute deviation (MAD), and in the GWS v Essendon game the span is 23 points and the MAD 6.4 points.

Bookie_9 has the extreme tip in four of the contests, C_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg in three, and Bookie_3 in two.

For the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors the widest range of forecasts comes in the Fremantle v Collingwood game where the Dockers' chances are assessed as ranging from 37% (MoSSBODS_Prob) to 58% (Bookie_LPSO) and the MAD is 7.2% points per Predictor.

There's an interesting and unusual spread of extreme forecasts across the round, with Bookie_OE, Bookie_RE, Bookie_LPSO and C_Prob all most extreme in two contests, MoSHBODS_Prob in just one, and MoSSBODS_Prob in three.


MoSHBODS_Prob's opinions are sufficiently different from one or other of the two bookmaker's this week to have produced head-to-head wagers in five of the six contests. As well, MoSSBODS_Prob has identified what it considers to be line-betting value in four of the games.

Combined, the head-to-head wagers amount to almost 17% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and the line wagers to almost 9% of the original Line Fund. Combined, they put almost 7% of the original Overall Portfolio at risk.

The vast majority of the downside risk this week is attached to a Port Adelaide loss (-2.3c), a GWS loss (-2c), and a Collingwood loss by a goal or more (-1.6c).

Those three games also have the largest upside, however, with a Pies win adding 1.5c to the Overall Portfolio, a Port Adelaide win by 32 points or more 1.2c, and a GWS win by 27 points or more adding 1c. Combined with the two other games on which there are wagers of lesser significance, the total upside for the round is just under 5c.


Here are the MoS twins' views on team and total scoring for the week.

Commentary to follow.