2017 - Round 9 : Hard to Pick

Amongst this weekend's slightly truncated set of eight matches, five have bookmaker handicaps that imply the final victory margin will be under 14 points.

That level of uncertainty isn't reflected in the forecasts of the Head-to-Head Tipsters, however, as only one game sees a minority group containing more than two Tipsters. 

That game is the traditional cartoon rivalry of Cats v Dogs where six of the nine Tipsters have sided with the narrowly underdog Cats.

The Margin Predictors are also nervous about this game, 10 of them forecasting margins of 3 points or less. Even C_Marg, which is boldest in its assessment of the Cats' prospects, only has them winning by just over 2 goals.

C_Marg is boldest too in its assessment of the Pies, who it has winning by 28 points, some 7 points more than any other Predictor and about 18 points more than the all-Predictor average. That C_Marg forecast has helped elevate the all-Predictor mean absolute deviation (MAD) for this game to 7.8 points per Predictor, the highest of the round.

The second-highest MAD comes in the Saints v Swans game where it is C_Marg, again with the two MoS Predictors, driving up the average spread of margin forecasts, here to 6.2 points per Predictor.

Those same two games also have the highest MADs amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors.


It's a considered set of nine wagers that MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS have recommended for the weekend, the five head-to-head wagers putting 13.6% of the original Head-to-Head Fund at risk, and the four line wagers putting 8.6% of the original Line Fund at risk.

In total, they imperil only about 6% of the original Overall Portfolio, which is the smallest aggregate wagering for a single round this season (even on a per-game basis, adjusting for the fact that there's one game fewer than normal this week.)

The Pies v Hawks, and Saints v Swans games carry the majority of the round's risk, with a single goal by the Hawks capable of turning a 1.9c gain into a 2.2c loss in their game, and a similarly untimely major by the Swans capable of turning a 1.8c gain into a 2.1c loss in theirs.

Overall, there are wagers in six of the eight games - including a 9th head-to-head wager in 9 rounds on the Roos - with a maximum upside of just under 6c.


Here are the opinions of MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS.

Commentary, as usual, later in the week.