2017 - Team Ratings After Round 8

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The Crows, after their second successive loss - the latest one to the Dees - have surrendered their number 1 ranking on both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS. That spot has been taken by their cross-town rivals, Port Adelaide.

Both Systems now have matching top 5s and, in total, rank 13 of the 18 teams identically. Three more teams are ranked just one place differently, leaving Collingwod and Geelong as the only teams where there's any substantive debate at all. MoSSBODS has Collingwood ranked 6th and Geelong 8th. MoSHBODS has exactly the opposite rankings.

Port Adelaide's move to the top of the MoSSBODS table is its first appearance there since the end of Round 14 in the 2014 season.

(Guernsey images provided by www.footyjumpers.com)

For completeness, here are the details for earlier eras. You can click on them to access larger versions.

Port Adelaide's move into top spot has come about move from Adelaide's declining rating than from any significant lift of their own, as you can see from the animation below. 

Adelaide remains, however, both MoSSBODS' and MoSHBODS' highest-ranked offensive team, ahead of Port Adelaide and then GWS under both Systems.  

On defence, the Western Bulldogs are ranked 1st by both Systems, with Port Adelaide and GWS sitting in 2nd and 3rd.

The round's biggest movers were:

  • Sydney, up two places offensively on both Systems
  • Gold Coast, down two or three places offensively on both Systems
  • Melbourne, up two places defensively on both Systems
  • Richmond, down two or three places defensively on both Systems
  • The Kangaroos, down two or three places defensively on both Systems

Under both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS, the range of team offensive ratings is considerably narrower than the range of team defensive ratings. For MoSSBODS we have an offensive spread of 8.6 Scoring Shots and a defensive spread of 10.8 Scoring Shots, while for MoSHBODS we have spreads of 34.7 points and 41.4 points respectively. That difference is largely due to the exceptionally low defensive ratings of the Lions, however.

If we look, instead, at the spread of ratings, we find similar metrics for the offensive and defensive ratings under both Systems. The standard deviation of MoSSBODS offensive ratings is 2.49 Scoring Shots, which is almost identical to the figure for MoSSBODS defensive ratings. For MoSHBODS, the standard deviations are 9.35 points and 9.38 points, respectively. 

Practically, what this means is that the 18 teams are, as a group, no more differentiated by their offensive abilities than they are by their defensive abilities at this point in the season. 

ChiPS AND MARS

ChiPS agrees that Port Adelaide currently deserves top ranking, but MARS still has Adelaide with a 4.7 Rating Point lead over Port Adelaide at the top of its tree. Both Systems have GWS in 3rd.

Further down the ladder, there are much larger differences in ranking:

  • Richmond, ranked 5th by ChiPS and 11th by MARS
  • West Coast, ranked 7th by ChiPS and 4th by MARS
  • Collingwood, ranked 8th by ChiPS and 12th by MARS
  • Sydney, ranked 10th by ChiPS and 7th by MARS
  • St Kilda, ranked 12th by ChiPS and 9th by MARS
  • Hawthorn, ranked 16th by ChiPS and 13th by MARS

None of those teams were the big movers on either System this week, however. These teams were:

  • Port Adelaide, up 2 places on ChiPS and 3 places on MARS
  • Geelong, down 2 places on ChiPS and MARS
  • Melbourne, up 3 places on ChiPS and MARS
  • The Kangaroos, down 2 places on ChiPS and MARS

In the coming weeks I might take a quick look at how useful ChiPS and MARS ratings and rankings have been in forecasting winners and margins so far this season.

That's enough for now though.