2016 Round 19 : Overs/Unders Update

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The Overs/Unders Fund likes a lot of what it sees in this week's offerings, sufficient to make wagers in six of the nine games, which is the most it's made since Round 10 when it also made six bets.

Those half-dozen wagers are split evenly between over and under bets, and when combined with the five line and four head-to-head bets put a total of about 9% of the original Overall Portfolio at risk.

Alone, the overs/unders bet represent an aggregate risk of about 2.4% of the Overall Portfolio for a maximum return of about 1.1%.

MoSSBODS COMPARISON TO THE TAB

MoSSBODS foresees higher totals than does the TAB bookmaker in six of the weekend's contests, and lower totals in the other three, the differences ranging in absolute terms from less than a point up to about 3 goals.

The largest difference is in the Hawks v Blues game where MoSSBODS has the Hawks scoring just 97 points compared to the TAB's expectation of 111 points, and has the Blues scoring 59 points compared to the TAB's expectation of 93.5 points. Combined, that has MoSSBODS tipping a 156 point game and the TAB a 174.5 point game.

Other teams, like Hawthorn, expected to score at least a goal less by MoSSBODS than by the TAB bookmaker are West Coast (MoSSBODS 80, TAB 93.5), Port Adelaide (MoSSBODS 107, TAB 117.5), and the Western Bulldogs (MoSSBODS 62, TAB 69.5).

For only one team is MoSSBODS' expectation more than a goal higher than the TAB's, the Brisbane Lions, which MoSSBODS has scoring 89 points and the TAB just 81. 

Both MoSSBODS and the TAB have the Lions v Port game as the round's highest-scoring, and both also have the Cats v Dogs, and the Dockers v Swans as the two lowest-scoring games, albeit that they have them in a different order.

MoSSBODS' and the TAB bookmaker's comparative records are now as follows:

Home Team Scores

  • MoSSBODS - MAE 20.0 / Ave Error +6 (Actual - Predicted)
  • TAB - MAE 17.8 / Ave Error +2

Away Team Scores

  • MoSSBODS - MAE 19.5 / Ave Error +1
  • TAB - MAE 19.7 / Ave Error -4

Total Scores

  • MoSSBODS - MAE 26.7 / Ave Error +8
  • TAB - MAE 24.8 / Ave Error -2

Game Margins

  • MoSSBODS - MAE 29.1 / Ave Error +5
  • TAB - MAE 28.4 / Ave Error +6