2016 - Round 4 Results - Another Suspiciously Good Round

After an absurdly good start to Round 4 across Friday and Saturday, with a Head-to-Head bet on the Dons the only loser amongst four Head-to-Head, three Line and five Overs/Unders wagers, it seemed Investors' fortunes may have finally altered on Sunday when the first two Overs/Unders wagers ended up as losers. But then, in the last game of the round, the Roos rallied in the final term to land both the Head-to-Head and Line wagers on them, meaning that Sunday joined the lengthy list of profitable wagering days from this season.

It truly has been an astonishing first few rounds of the season and I remain braced for the bungy cord of fortune to do its stuff.

Anyway, the summary of Round 4 wagering is a 4 from 5 performance from the Head-to-Head Fund for a 7.7c gain, a 4 from 4 performance from the Line Fund for a 7.3c gain, and a 5 from 7 performance from the Overs/Unders Fund for a 5c gain. All of which, combined, adds another 7c to the Overall Portfolio and leaves it up by over 25c on the season. The ROI for the season now stands at an improbable +71%.

Even a break-even performance from here to the end of the season would make this one of MoS' most successful years ever. (And yes, I know, that poultry is still inside those eggs ...)

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

As fun as it is to borrow money from the bookmaker, it's equally enjoyable for me to simply outpredict him, which is what both the MoSSBODS and ChiPS Systems did this weekend in their various forecasting guises.

In the head-to-head tipping stakes, MoSSBODS_Marg scored 7 from 9, equal-best with the two ENS Tipsters and a tip better than Bookie Knows Best (who, by the way, went with Sydney in the Adelaide v Sydney game because of the rule which has it mirror the CTL tip when the TAB installs equal favourites).

Home Sweet Home scored the same as BKB, 6 from 9, which was enough to have it remain atop the Leaderboard, a position it now shares with MoSSBODS_Marg. They're both on 27 from 36 (75%).

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MoSSBODS_Marg was also best amongst the Margin Predictors, its mean absolute error (MAE) of 28.4 points per game almost a full 1 point per game better than the next-best, ENS_Linear_MoSS, which returned a 29.4 MAE. The all-Predictor average for the round was 31.6 points per game. MoSSBODS_Marg's performance leaves it with a season MAE of 27.6 points per game and has it, in absolute terms, just over 14 points clear of C_Marg.

To complete the story of MoSSBODS' domination this week, MoSSBODS_Prob recorded the round's second-best probability score, just a fraction worse than C_Prob's, which was enough for it to retain first place on the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors Leaderboard.

There really has never been a better time in Australia to tip footy results without incorporating bookmaker pricing data ...