2016 Round 4 : Overs/Unders Update

Suffice to say MoSSBODS has very different ideas from the TAB Bookmaker this week about the likely aggregate scores in the majority of the contests.

So much so that the Overs/Unders Fund has found reason enough to make a record seven bets across the weekend, four Unders wagers and three Overs wagers. We're guaranteed of at least one thing then: that the Fund will no longer have a 50/50 record at round's end.

The average bookmaker total this week across the nine games is 179.5 points per game, which is less than the average totals from Round 2 (185.2 points per game) and Round 3 (180.9 points per game), but more than the average total from Round 1 (177.7 points per game).

As we can see in the table above, MoSSBODS is most at odds with the bookmaker's scoring assessments in:

  • the Hawthorn v St Kilda game where it expects only 158 points to the bookmaker's 185.5
  • the Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast game where it expects 200 points and the bookmaker only 175.5
  • the GWS v Port Adelaide game where it expects only 157 points and the bookmaker expects 175.5

All but one of the larger differences between MoSSBODS' individual team score expectations and those of the bookmaker are for home teams, most notably for the Hawks (18 points difference), the Lions (17 points difference), the Giants (15 points difference), Carlton (14 points difference), and Essendon (13 points difference). The sole away team forwhich the discrepancy is in double-digits is Geelong, which MoSSBODS expects to score more than 26 points fewer than does the bookmaker.