2015 - Round 3 Results: Favourites Win, Investors Don't

All nine favourites won this week, but only five of them were home teams, and only two of those five covered their respective spreads, so whilst it was a week of solid result tipping and margin predicting it was a not a week of profitable MoS wagering.

Neither of the two head-to-head wagers were successful, and only one of the six line wagers wound up as collects, with the result that the Overall Portfolio shed 4.4c this week to finish the round down by 6.8c on the season. 


Five of the MoS head-to-head Tipsters tipped all nine results this week, including the three most directly Bookmaker related in BKB, B3 and B9, but also Combo_NN2 and Combo_7. Combo_NN2's perfect result for the round was enough to preserve its one tip lead over the field, leaving it on 20 from 27 for the season. The all-Tipster average for the week was 7 from 9, dragged down by 4s and 5s from a number of the Heuristic Tipsters.

Combo_7, as well as tipping all nine results, also recorded the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of all Margin Predictors, its 26.2 points per game slightly better than ENS_Greedy's and RSMP_Weighted's 26.6 points per game. None of those results, however, was sufficient to extinguish Combo_NN1's lead, its 31.9 points per game effort just enough to keep it ahead of RSMP_Weighted. The all-Predictor average this week was 28.2 points per game.

Head-to-Head Probability prediction also proved far less challenging this week than last, the highest Log Probability Scoring (LPS) Predictors being Bookie - RE and Bookie - LPSO. All eight of the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors returned positive LPSs. Those results saw the three most directly Bookmaker-derived Probability Predictors move to the top of the Leaderboard, nudging C_Prob into 4th.

The Head-to-Head Probability Predictors' successes were not, however, replicated by the Line Fund algorithm, which turned in a negative LPS for the third week running. That would suggest that line market predicting's been a difficult endeavour so far this season, a conclusion that is only but reinforced by the fact that only eight of the Margin Predictors have returned positive ROIs on line betting so far this year.