2014 - Round 25 Results : Not At All As Expected

Two upset victories by the Roos and Port Adelaide knocked more than 5c from the price of the Recommended Portfolio this week as Investors saw no collects from a full round's wagering for the first time this season.

That loss left the Recommended Portfolio up by 10.6c on the season.


C_Marg was the only Head-to-Head Tipster registering a non-zero score this week, correctly predicting the Roos' win over the Cats on account of, as explained in the pre-round blog, its complicated methodology for determining home team status in Finals. That lone success elevated it into a share of 8th spot on the MoS Leaderboard. Nobody else moved - literally. Bookie_9 still heads four other Tipsters - the three Win-based Tipsters and Combo_7 - at the top of the Leaderboard. That lead is an unassailable 3 tips.

C_Marg also recorded the round's best Mean Absolute Prediction Error (MAPE), at 14.7 point per game over 6 points per game better than the next-best Tipster, RSMP_Weighted. The all-Predictor average for the round was 30.1 points per game, which was enough to keep the all-Predictor all-Season average MAPE narrowly sub-30.

Completing its weekend of "onlies", C_Marg was also the only Margin Predictor to record a win on SuperMargin wagering, picking out the right bucket in the Cats v Roos game. It remains, however, in a loss-making position for the season as a whole.

Eight Margin Predictors have season-long profitable SuperMargin records when wagering on their Home team win and draw predictions.Two of those Predictors are Win_3 and Win_7, who also made profits on the same basis in 2013, and another is ProPred_7, who broke even in 2013.

All of the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors recorded negative probability scores for the round, WinPred worst of all to leave it in 5th on the Leaderboard. C_Prob registered the round's best probability score but remains in 4th place behind, in order, Bookie-OE, Bookie-LPSO and then Bookie-RE.

The Line Fund algorithm also registered a negative probability score for the round, though its -0.0251 bits per game average score is still higher than the -0.0313 bits per game average it recorded in 2013.

(ChiPS had no bets this weekend and so lost no additional money from wagering.)