Two upset victories by the Roos and Port Adelaide knocked more than 5c from the price of the Recommended Portfolio this week as Investors saw no collects from a full round's wagering for the first time this season.
That loss left the Recommended Portfolio up by 10.6c on the season.
TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
C_Marg was the only Head-to-Head Tipster registering a non-zero score this week, correctly predicting the Roos' win over the Cats on account of, as explained in the pre-round blog, its complicated methodology for determining home team status in Finals. That lone success elevated it into a share of 8th spot on the MoS Leaderboard. Nobody else moved - literally. Bookie_9 still heads four other Tipsters - the three Win-based Tipsters and Combo_7 - at the top of the Leaderboard. That lead is an unassailable 3 tips.
C_Marg also recorded the round's best Mean Absolute Prediction Error (MAPE), at 14.7 point per game over 6 points per game better than the next-best Tipster, RSMP_Weighted. The all-Predictor average for the round was 30.1 points per game, which was enough to keep the all-Predictor all-Season average MAPE narrowly sub-30.
Completing its weekend of "onlies", C_Marg was also the only Margin Predictor to record a win on SuperMargin wagering, picking out the right bucket in the Cats v Roos game. It remains, however, in a loss-making position for the season as a whole.
Eight Margin Predictors have season-long profitable SuperMargin records when wagering on their Home team win and draw predictions.Two of those Predictors are Win_3 and Win_7, who also made profits on the same basis in 2013, and another is ProPred_7, who broke even in 2013.
All of the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors recorded negative probability scores for the round, WinPred worst of all to leave it in 5th on the Leaderboard. C_Prob registered the round's best probability score but remains in 4th place behind, in order, Bookie-OE, Bookie-LPSO and then Bookie-RE.
The Line Fund algorithm also registered a negative probability score for the round, though its -0.0251 bits per game average score is still higher than the -0.0313 bits per game average it recorded in 2013.
(ChiPS had no bets this weekend and so lost no additional money from wagering.)