2014 - Team Ratings After Round 19

/

In a season such as this where Ratings towards the top of the table are quite compressed - at the end of last round, for example, six teams were separated by only a little more than 3.5 Rating Points -  unexpectedly large or small wins or losses can lead to significant team reorderings. So it was then that 10 teams changed their ChiPS Ranking this week, three of them by more than a single place.

Adelaide fared worst, falling four places into 8th after going down to the Eagles by 31 points, while Geelong fared best, climbing four spots into 4th after defeating the Roos by a similar margin. Collingwood were the only other team to climb multiple places, rising two spots into 5th on the strength of their win over Port Adelaide on Sunday night by just 6 points.

Other teams to rise were the Dons and the Suns, while others to fall were the Dockers, Roos, Tigers and Dogs.

MARS now ranks differently to ChiPS by more than a single place:

  • Port Adelaide (5th on MARS and 3rd on ChiPS)
  • Collingwood (8th on MARS and 5th on ChiPS)
  • Fremantle (3rd on MARS and 6th on ChiPS)

Every other team is ranked by these two Systems no more than one place differently, this broad agreement mirrored in the alignment of ChiPS' and MARS' Ratings. One difference between ChiPS and MARS Ratings is that the former are nearer 1,000 for any given team than are the latter.

Adding the other MoS Team Rating Systems we see that Colley Ranks four teams at least two places differently from all other Systems:

  • Brisbane Lions, which it Ranks 13th and no other System Ranks higher than 15th
  • Carlton, which it Ranks 15th and no other System Ranks lower than 13th
  • Gold Coast, which it Ranks 9th and no other System Ranks higher than 12th
  • Melbourne, which it Ranks 18th and no other System Ranks lower than 16th

ChiPS is the only other System to record a Ranking for any team that is more than two places different than all other Systems' Ranking, a situation that pertains for:

  • Collingwood, which it Ranks 5th and no other System Ranks higher than 7th
  • Fremantle, which it Ranks 6th and no other System Ranks lower than 4th

Six teams now have ODM Component Rankings that differ from ODM Overall Rankings by more than three places:

  • Adelaide (Ranked 9th Overall and 4th on Offence)
  • Carlton (Ranked 13th Overall and 8th on Offence)
  • Collingwood (Ranked 7th Overall and 11th on Offence)
  • Essendon (Ranked 8th Overall, 3rd on Defence and 13th on Offence)
  • Melbourne (Ranked 16th Overall and 10th on Defence)
  • Port Adelaide (Ranked 4th Overall and 8th on Defence)

Predicting winners in each game purely on the basis of the team with the higher Rating, ChiPS predicted one winner fewer than MARS this week though still enjoys a two tip lead across the season.

Massey and ODM also tipped one result fewer than MARS, while Colley and the two ODM Component Systems tipped the same number of games as MARS.