2014 - Round 18b : A Final Line Drive

The Line Fund has just four more games during which it can wantonly Level-stake at 5% of the Fund per wager. From Round 19 to the end of the home-and-away season its stakes are restricted to 2.5% per at bat, and for the Finals it's allowed only 0.625% micro-bets. It's decided to swing hard at just two of those last four pitches. (I'm going to stop now before it becomes desperately obvious that I lack bench depth in baseball references.)

In contrast, neither the Head-to-Head nor the Margin Fund find themselves facing any curtailment of wagering activity prior to the end of the home-and-away season, but the former has made wagers on three games totalling almost one-quarter of the Fund, while the latter has made six of a maximum possible eight wagers, including one on the draw in the Hawks v Swans game. The Head-to-Head Fund's Hawks wager is its second-largest single wager of the season, its largest having been on the Crows in the previous round when they lost, potentially ironically enough, to the Hawks.

Including the five games from last week, the three Funds have outlayed about 21% of the entire Recommended Portfolio on the games comprising Round 18. That's the second-highest aggregate all season, behind only the 24% from the round before. Fortunately, only about 13% of the Portfolio remains to be risked this week, the other 8% have been offered up and retrieved with a little interest last week.

Focussing solely on the games remaining in the round, two carry upsides greater than 4%, this comprising the Hawks v Swans game where a draw would ratchet the Recommended Portfolio up by over 10%, and the Pies v Crows game where a Pies win by between 1 and 9 points would add 4.4c to the Portfolio price. 

Downside is even more concentrated, with just under one-half of it cradled by the Hawks who could knock over 6c off the value of the Recommended Portfolio by the relatively simple act of losing by 3 points or more. A Pies loss by any magnitude or a Lions loss by 15 points or more would each lop another 2.5 to 3c off the Portfolio price.


At least three Head-to-Head Tipsters form the minority opinion in all four of the remaining contests in the round and, unusually, Home Sweet Home finds itself in that minority only once.

In the Eagles v Tigers game five Heuristic Tipsters form the dissenting contingent, while in the Lions v Suns game it's four Heuristic Tipsters and Combo_NN_1. The Pies v Crows game has two contrarian Heuristic Tipsters plus C_Marg, and the Hawks v Sydney game has eight Heuristic Tipsters (including BKB), Bookie_3, Bookie_9, Combo_NN_1 and Combo_7 all getting behind the Swans.

Amongst the four leading Tipsters there's only a single dissenting tip however, with Combo_NN_1 opting for the Lions over the Suns. In the other games the top 4 are unanimously behind West Coast, Sydney and Collingwood.

There's also at least a single dissenting Margin Predictor in three of the week's four games, though in two of them it is just a single dissenting voice. Combo_NN_1, as I've already referenced, has gone solo in tipping the Lions (but by less than a behind), C_Marg is alone in predicting a Crows victory, and six Predictors have estimated a Swans win by margins ranging from 0.1 points (Bookie_9) to 21 points (Combo_NN_1).

For the remaining, Eagles v Tigers matchup, it's wall-to-wall support for the home team Eagles by margins from 2 points (Combo_NN_2) to 18 points (Win_7). That range of just 16 points is the narrowest among the weekend's four games, the broadest being 45 points for the Hawks v Swans game.

Notwithstanding that every game has at least one Predictor forecasting victories by about 3 goals or more, there are, it seems, reasonable prospects for a round of tight finishes. There are four Predictors in the Eagles v Tigers game predicting single-digit victory margins, ten in the Lions v Suns game (note that the Win_7 margin prediction is actually 9.5 points), eight in the Hawks v Swans game, and ten in the Pies v Crows game.

The Head-to-Head Probability Predictors are unanimous in their support for the Eagles and the Suns, but split 5-3 in favour of the Hawks over the Swans, and 7-1 in favour of the Pies over the Crows. C_Prob, Win_Pred and Bookie-OE are the Extreme Predictors in two games each this weekend.

Note that, for the third round in succession, the 25% cap has needed to be applied to H2H_Unadjusted's probability assessments to arrive at H2H_Adjusted's. This week, H2H_Unadjusted rated the Hawks as 77% chances, which is more than 25% higher than they are rated by the TAB based on their price in the Head-to-Head market. Accordingly, H2H_Adjusted rates the Hawks as only 70.5% chances. So far, these adjustments have served to elevate H2H_Adjusted's probability scoring over H2H-Unadjusted's.

Finally, note that the Line Fund algorithm has rated two teams (Richmond and Adelaide) as the narrowest of favourites on line betting, but Brisbane as 62% and Hawthorn as 72% favourites for that same form of wagering. The market tends to agree with that assessment of the Lions having shortened their price to $1.85, but it very much disagrees with the assessment of the Hawks having lengthened their price to $1.95.

(There's no ChiPS update this week since its margin and probability predictions don't respond to market prices. It does, however, vary its suggested wagering amount based on prevailing prices, and recommends a 2.9% bet on the Hawks at $2.10 as its sole wager of the week.)