2014 - Round 8 Results : Made Money, Guessed Right

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We Investors already knew our financial fate last evening. All that was left this Monday night was to see how MatterOfStats' various Predictors and Tipsters finished the round.

Carlton's victory surprised and disappointed only Combo_NN_1, and its size positively delighted in particular Bookie_3 and Win_7 for whom the result was but 8 points different from their approximate expectations.

Collectively, the Head-to-Head Tipsters selected the correct result in 4.6 of the weeks' 6 games, with many, including BKB, snaring 5 from 6 and only Easily Impressed II and Home Sweet Home ending the round with a just a 3 from 6 record.

Best amongst the Margin Predictors was Combo_NN_2's 19.50 Mean Absolute Prediction Error (MAPE), though this wasn't enough to elevate it higher than 4th-last on the Ladder. Atop that Ladder is Combo_7, whose 23.08 MAPE leaves it a tad under 2 goals ahead of RSMP_Simple, and about 21 points ahead of Bookie_9. In general, there's congestion near the top of the Ladder, the margin separating the first eight Predictors now standing at only about 6 goals.

Seven Margin Predictors currently have line betting records sufficient to generate a profit, Combo_7 and C_Marg - the best and the worst of the Margin Predictors in terms of MAPE - among them.

On Head-to-Head Probability Prediction, the most directly Bookie-derived predictors continue to prevail, with the Bookie-ignorant C_Prob maintaining a respectable and entirely surmountable distance in 4th. Meantime the Line Fund algorithm continues to show a positive season-long probability score sparking hope for long-time Investors that the Line Fund is set to reprise its signature mid-season can't-possibly-be-guessing, pick-the-right-team-far-more-often-than-pick-the-wrong-team party piece.

Turning lastly to SuperMargin wagering, despite Bookie_9's, Win_3's and Win_7's laser-like bucket accuracy in two of this week's six contests, Combo_NN_1 remains as the only Margin Predictor with a profitable record for the entire season, and even it has only achieved this in games where it's predicted a home team win or draw.

It truly has been a difficult year to make money on SuperMargin wagering.