2013 : Round 26 (Finals Week 3) - Results

Some might call it luck; I'd call it justice.

On Friday night, the Hawks, apparently failing to hear the final siren, advanced the ball after completing a mark inside 50 rather than taking a very makeable shot on goal that would have extended their victory margin from 5 to 11 points. Had they chanced and kicked that goal, one of Investors' two SuperMargin wagers would have flipped from loser to winner. Instead, both were lost. Then, come the fourth term on Saturday night, the Dockers led comfortably - so comfortably, in fact, that our twin wagers on them to win by between 20 to 29 points looked as forlorn as the Swans' chances of defending their title.

But a late flurry by the Swans, though insufficient to get them home, whittled the Dockers' final margin to just 25 points, landing both SuperMargin wagers and leaving Investors up by 0.8c on the weekend and now up by about 7.6c on the season.

Investors will be making a profit in 2013. All that remains is to determine its size.

TIPSTERS AND PREDICTORS

The Hawks' win was enough to ensure that only four Head-to-Head Tipsters have a chance at finishing top of the MAFL Leaderboard. Those four Tipsters, Combo_NN2 and the three WinPred-based Tipsters, are now two tips clear of the rest of the field on 152.5 from 206 (74%), and it'll take one of them making a contrarian but prescient selection in the GF to break the impasse.

Margin Predictor performances were, once again, very good this week, the best being Win_7's mean absolute prediction error (MAPE) of just 3.1 points per game. Even the worst performance, Combo_NN2's 15.2 points per game, was creditable enough. That leaves RSMP_Weighted with an unassailable lead of over 76 points and virtually assures RSMP_Simple of 2nd place. Amongst the top Margin Predictors only Combo_7 has a realistic chance of climbing the Leaderboard, trailing Bookie_LPSO as it now does by just under 5 points.

All four of the leading Margin Predictors have maintained line betting performances this year sufficient to eke out a profit at $1.90 prices.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, Bookie_LPSO continues to lead, having extended its advantage this week on the back of a best-in-field performance. Next best was the second-placed Bookie_RE, followed by the third-placed Bookie_OE. In this contest too it's hard to see the order changing after next weekend's Grand Final.

The Line Fund algorithm's probability score for the week, rounded to two decimal places, was zero, which lifted its season-long performance almost imperceptibly closer to that same value.

SUPERMARGIN PERFORMANCES

Eight Margin Predictors selected the correct bucket in one of the week's two games, though ProPred_3 was not amongst them, which allowed Win_7 to draw level with it on 28 correct selections for the year, and allowed Combo_NN2 to draw within 1 correct selection of that mark. Those three Predictors, along with Win_3, are the only Predictors with positive ROIs for the entire season.

Combo_NN2 has a much higher ROI in relation to the bucket selections it's made when tipping a home team win, however, which is the ROI that matters most to MAFL Investors. Regrettably, Bookie_9 has been nowhere near as successful.