2013 : Round 19 - Results

It was pleasant to wake up on Sunday morning knowing that, whatever the day's football brought, a profit for the round was assured. As it turned out, Sunday wasn't kind to Investors, though the Dogs offered hope for an unlikely victory and an equally unlikely collect on our head-to-head wager at $8 for longer than we might reasonably have expected.

That loss paired with a win in the round's only other head-to-head wager - the best $1 I've ever spent - to lop a little over 3c off the value of the Head-to-Head Fund, which remains up by almost 18c on the season.

The Head-to-Head Fund was the only Fund to register a net loss for the weekend, the Line Fund proving flawless in landing three wagers from three to climb by about 7c, taking it to a profit of 7.5c across the season, and the Margin Fund snagging two wagers from 12 to ratchet up by 2c for the week, leaving it with a season profit of over 33c.

In total, the Recommended Portfolio grew by another 3.3c across the weekend and is now up by over 13c on the year, with each dollar in the Portfolio now having been invested about 1.9 times.


There were three underdog victories this weekend which, when coupled with the Head-to-Head Tipsters' widespread aversion to selecting the victorious and favourited Suns, saw many of these Tipsters score only five from nine.

Combo_NN2 was one of the exceptions, its six from nine being sufficient to catapult it back into outright leadership on the MAFL Leaderboard, one tip ahead of seven pursuing Tipsters. The lowly Easily Impressed I registered the round's best score with a seven, while H2H_Adj_7 and Short Term Memory I turned in the week's lowest scores of just four.

Only three Margin Predictors recorded mean absolute prediction errors (MAPEs) below 30 this week: Bookie_9, Combo_7, and Bookie_LPSO. These performances served to close but not eliminate the gap between these three Predictors and RSMP_Weighted and RSMP_Simple, which therefore still occupy the top two places on the Leaderboard. In fact, there wasn't much gap elimination happening at all amongst any of the Margin Predictors, with Combo_NN1 and ProPred_3 the only Predictors to move anywhere on the ladder.

As well as leading on MAPE, RSMP_Weighted currently has the highest line betting accuracy rate of all the Predictors. RSMP_Simple is also a strong performer on both metrics, lying second on MAPE and equal-second on line betting where it's tied with, of all Predictors, H2H_Unadj_3 and H2H_Unadj_10, which occupy the bottom two places in terms of MAPE. Still we find then that predictive accuracy can be highly domain specific.

Much as the Margin Predcitors, the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors maintained their ordering this week, with all recording small negative probability scores for the round of about the same magnitude.

The Line Fund algorithm registered its fourth positive probability score in six rounds.


Five of the Margin Predictors selected the correct bucket in two games this week: Bookie_LPSO, Bookie_3, Bookie_9, Combo_7, and Combo_NN2. That moved Combo_NN2 into equal-second place in terms of correct predictions across the season for all games, level with ProPred_7 on 23 and behind only ProPred_3 on 25.

Unfortunately, again this week, one of Combo_NN2's successful predictions came in a game where it was predicting an away team victory and so was useless as far as Investors were concerned. Its other correct prediction wasn't wasted, however, and, as well as generating finanical returns for Investors, was enough to lift it into outright leadership in terms of correct bucket predictions for home teams.

Combo_NN2 has now selected the correct bucket for home teams on 14 occasions, one more than ProPred_7, the pair now two of only five Predictors with positive ROIs for wagers on home teams in SuperMargin markets.