2013 : MARS, Massey, Colley and ODM Ratings After Round 19

Despite shedding over 5 Rating Points (RPs) this week, Hawthorn remain the top-ranked team on MARS Ratings, though they now enjoy a lead of only about 3 RPs over the Swans. Further down the table, four pairs of teams swapped places as the Pies, Tigers, Eagles and Lions clambered, respectively, over the Roos, Blues, Crows and Saints.

If you're a subscriber to the "momentum matters" way of thinking you might be interested to note that, amongst the teams currently in Finals positions on the competition ladder, four have accumulated RPs over the past five rounds (Collingwood, Sydney, Fremantle and Geelong) while four have surrendered them to their opponents (Essendon, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn and Richmond).

While I'm on the topic of momentum, it makes sense for me to provide the chart of team MARS Ratings for the season, from which you can discern momentum for various teams of longer and of shorter durations.

In particular, the recent, dramatic downturn for the Dons, and the longer-term and gentler ascendancies of the Pies, Cats, Roos and Swans are visually apparent.

Looking next at the rankings from MAFL's other Rating Systems we find Colley steadfast in its loftier opinions about the merits of Essendon and Port Adelaide, and coming around to the other Systems' views about the higher ranking of the Roos.

For all other teams there remains remarkably high levels of agreement across the Systems.

Decomposing ODM's views into their constituent Offensive and Defensive components, we see the following significant movements this week: 

  • A fall in Essendon's Offensive and Defensive ranking (and fair enough, I say, when you lose 133-54)
  • A fall in Hawthorn's Defensive ranking
  • A rise in the Kangaroos' Defensive ranking
  • A fall in Port Adelaide's Defensive ranking

These movements leave ODM with significantly different opinions about team offensive versus defensive capabilities in relation to: 

  • Essendon, Hawthorn, Kangaroos and West Coast: offence > defence
  • Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Richmond and Sydney: defence > offence

Finally, taking a look at the simple predictive accuracy of the Rating Systems, we find that MARS still enjoys a lead of 3 correct predictions over Massey as at the end of Round 19. It also leads ODM by 5 and Colley by 9 predictions.