2011 Round 22 Results: Not Quite

The weekend's perfect 3 from 3 wagering performance by the Head-to-Head Fund wasn't enough to overcome the 0 and 3 performance from the Line Fund, resulting in a 5.5c decline in the Portfolio price, sending it to 92c.

It was very nearly a different story for the Line Fund, however, as two of its wagers - those on Carlton and on Melbourne - fell short by less than a kick. On balance though, Investors don't have much to complain about this season when it comes to line bets decided by narrow margins. Across the 21 rounds, the Line Fund has lost only 1.7c (net) from line bets decided by less than 6 points, so this week's losses might be considered as merely an evening of the ledger.

If we expand our definition of "narrow" to encompass any line bet decided by less than 2 goals then we find that the Line Fund has been somewhat "lucky", having gained almost 8c from games falling within this definition.

The success of the Head-to-Head Fund in wagering extended into the success of the H2H family of Head-to-Head Tipsters, each of which recorded a perfect 8 from 8 tipping performance. Across all Head-to-Head Tipsters the average result was 6.4 from 8, representing the 6th-highest accuracy rate of the season. Least impressed was Easily Impressed II, which produced the round's worst tipping performance of just 3 from 8.

With seven favourites winning, BKB registered a 7, enough to allow it to grab a share of the lead with Bookie_9, which scored only 6. These two tipsters are now tied in the lead on 130.5 from 171 (76.3%), while Combo_NN_1 and Combo_NN_2 are tied in third place, one tip further back on 129.5 from 171 (75.7%).

Despite the fact that the victory margin in four games this week was over 9 goals, the average MAPE was still only 31.13 points per game, the 11th-highest (and 11th-lowest) this season. Two Margin Predictors broke 30 for the round, ProPred_3, which produced the round's best MAPE of 28.24, and Bookie_3, which produced yet another solid round of 29.50 to extend its overall lead on the MAFL MAPE Leaderboard.

That lead now stands at 0.88 points per game, with Bookie_3's season-long MAPE of 29.15 points per game ahead of Combo_7's 30.03 points per game. Bookie_9 remains in third spot on 30.64 points per game and still within reach of a 30 points per game season finish.

The Margin Predictors averaged 4.5 correct line predictions from 8 this week, the 7th-highest average for the season. Best were Bookie_3 and ProPred_3, each registering 7 correct predictions from 8 and making these two Predictors the only two with season-long line betting averages above 52.6%, the minimum rate required for profitability.

Yet more success for favourites ensured another round of positive probability scores for the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors. Best amongst them was H2H, capping off a round of wagering, head-to-head tipping and probability scoring excellence for the various members of the H2H family. 

The Line Fund algorithm did not fare as well, turning in its worst probability score since Round 14.