MAFL 2010 : Round 7

I confess I didn't realise quite how active the six MAFL Funds would be this year once they were simultaneously let loose on the market. This week, their innate tendency to wager has been cunningly exploited by TAB Sportsbet in establishing seven of the home teams as favourites.

So, we have seven wagers from New Heritage (totalling almost 73% of the Fund), six from Prudence (for 25%), five from ELO-Based line (also for 25%), three from Hope (for about 10%), and two each from the currently joined-at-the hip Heuristic-Based and Shadow Funds (for 10% in both cases). In total, Investors with the Recommended Portfolio have about 27.5% of their total funds at risk.

The riskiest of the head-to-head bets is Hope's wager of 5.91% on the Dees, this week's only home team underdog. Other head-to-head bets include a slew on the Pies at $1.20 taking on the Roos, and significant amounts on both the Cats and the Crows, both at $1.25.

In four of the five line bets made by ELO-line we're receiving starts. In the fifth we're taking Melbourne with 24.5 points start.

Here's the detail:

For those with the Recommended Portfolio, the Dees v Dogs game represents easily the greatest upside, and the Crows v Tigers game represents (narrowly) the greatest downside, but also the largest difference between upside and downside.

Herewith the week's Ready Reckoner:

It's an attention-grabbing weekend indeed for a Recommended Portfolio-holding Investor when the smallest swing between the best and worst results for any of the eight games is over 2% of his or her total funds.

This week there's broad agreement amongst the tipsters for four of the games, but considerable disparity amongst them for the other four:

  • The Dogs are 14-1 favourites over the Dees, with the Home Sweet Home the lone dissenter. Chi, who tips the Dogs by 4 points, has this as his Game of the Round, and HAMP, who tips them by 10 points, has this as one of his two Games of the Round.
  • Port Adelaide are 8-7 favourites over the Dons, though the margin-tippers are all on the Dons. Our top 5 tipsters, however, are all on Port. BKB, who I expect will offer the Dons at -6.5 points, will have this as one of its two Games of the Round.
  • West Coast are 8-7 favourites over Hawthorn, and the margin-tippers have again voted as a bloc, in this game on the Eagles. This game would appear to be the uber Game of the Round as it represents ELO's and LAMP's Game of the Round and BKB's and HAMP's second Games of the Round.
  • Collingwood are unanimous favourites over the Roos. Tipped margins range from 26.5 to 35 points..
  • Fremantle are 9-6 favourites over the Lions. Again we have all margin-tippers selecting the same team, which here is Brisbane, and again we have all 5 top tipsters opting for the other team.
  • Geelong are 8-7 favourites over the Swans. The margin-tippers all select the Cats, with predicted victory margins spanning the range from 18 to 28 points.
  • Adelaide are unanimous favourites over the hapless Tigers. Predicted margins range from 24.5 to 33 points, which is about the deficit that the Tigers faced shortly after the centre-bounce last weekend.
  • St Kilda are 12-3 favourites over the Blues, though the tipsters supporting the Blues are each tipping at around 70%, so the Blues are not without a chance.

This week the starts on offer suggest that the matchups aren't as even as last week's - the Cats v Tigers game aside - but we can still look forward this weekend to a round where four of the games have starts of fewer than 16 points, and the remainder all have starts of fewer than 27 points. (Fewer or less? I always find this hard to decide for line betting. Points are undoubtedly countable, so that's one vote for 'fewer', but the bookies offer half point starts, so does that make points a mass noun?)

Anyway, to the HELP predictions.

Again nothing brave this weekend from HELP, especially in relation to the Lions and Saints tips, the probabilities for which I've had to show with a decimal to differentiate them from sheer naivety.