MAFL 2010 : Round 8

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Some weeks there's a period where I'm 5 years old again and I hold my breath and close my eyes while I run the Fund scripts and partly fear, partly hope for the worst. This week that apprehension was tied to just how much we'd have riding on the Tigers who were being offered by TAB Sportsbet at $4.50 and taking on the Hawks at the G.

When I peeked and exhaled I found that the Funds commanded ... no head-to-head bet on the Tigers. We did have a 5% line bet though, but with 30.5 points start, I'll take that as a reasonable proposition.

In total, those with the Recommended Portfolio have an even two-dozen wagers this week, five of them struck by Prudence and representing about 15% of that Fund, four from each of Shadow (20%), Heuristic-Based (20%), New Heritage (38%) and ELO-Line (20%), and three from the Hope Fund and representing about 11% of that Fund.

In total, Investors with the Recommended Portfolio have about 21% of their total funds at risk. I tell you, money in that portfolio just turns its little tail off.

Only one of the week's bets is at a price in excess of $2, and that's Hope's 5.5% wager on the Lions at $3 facing the Cats but playing at home at the Gabba. Frankly, I like those odds. The remaining wagers are at prices from $1.36 - on Melbourne, of all teams, head-to-head facing the Eagles - up to $1.90, on Fremantle, head-to-head playing the Pies, and on all four line bets.

Here's the detail:

For those with the Recommended Portfolio, the round's last game, which is the Saints v Dons clash, is the game that represents the largest swing between best and worst outcomes. It also represents the largest downside risk as a loss would set 4.8% of the Portfolio ablaze. At the other end of the spectrum, the Lions v Cats game offers the greatest upside. If the underdog Lions win, the Recommended Portfolio will leap by 2.65%.

So then, what other threats and promises does this week's Ready Reckoner enfold?

For those holding the Recommended Portfolio it's another weekend where the outcome of most games carries a wealth swing of 2.5% or more. In consequence it's another weekend of baldly partisan viewing.

The tipsters are broadly in agreement for yet another week, although in none of the games is there unanimity amongst them.

  • The Pies are 13-2 favourites over Freo, with only Home Sweet Home, HAMP and LAMP separate from the herd. LAMP is by no means overwhelmingly committed to the home team Freo, however, and has them winning by just 5 points, making this its Game of the Round. The bookies too are only weak supporters, though they're on the Pies, and look set to have this as one of their two Games of the Round.
  • The Dogs are 12-3 favourites over the Swans. All five margin-tippers are on the Dogs with margins ranging from 8.5 to 25 points.
  • Melbourne are 12-3 favourites over the Eagles. In this game, predicted Eagles victory margins range from 11 to 23 points.
  • Geelong are 13-2 favourites over the Lions. HAMP has the Cats winning by just 6 points, making this its Game of the Round.
  • Adelaide are 8-7 favourites over the Roos. All the margin-tippers are on the Roos, however, including ELO, who is tipping the Roos by 2, making this its Game of the Round.
  • Hawthorn are 13-2 favourites over the Tigers. Chi is one of the two tipsters predicting a Tigers win and he has them winning by just 2 points.
  • Port Adelaide are 11-4 favourites over the Blues. Chi's on the Blues but tips just a 1-point win, so this is his Game of the Round. It also looks likely to be the bookie's other Game of the Round, with Port set to be offering just 6.5 points start.
  • St Kilda are 13-2 favourites over the Dons, though heaven knows why after the way they played on Monday night. The margin tipsters are particularly confident and are prophesying margins ranging from 17.5 to 31 points. Let's hope they're right.

Average starts this week are again quite low. All but one of them are 18.5 points or fewer, the highest being the 30.5 points start that the Tigers enjoy.

Finally, to HELP, who's looking to consolidate last weekend's improved showing (whatever that oft-quoted sporting reference really means).

There's some pluck in them there predictions, with Melbourne, the Roos, Hawthorn and St Kilda all confidently predicted to cover their respective spreads. Pluck comes, as ever, stapled to risk and reward, however, so HELP faces a roller-coaster weekend of probability scoring.