MatterOfStats 2018 : Team Dashboard for Round 15

The latest Team Dashboard appears below.

This week we'll once again look at how teams are performing relative to what might be expected given their scoring statistics and the MoS Win Production Function.

Six teams have now won about one or more games fewer than their statistics would imply:

  • Brisbane Lions (2.6 games fewer)
  • Melbourne (2.0 games fewer)
  • Geelong (1.8 games fewer)
  • Carlton (1.2 games fewer)
  • North Melbourne (0.8 games fewer)
  • Hawthorn (0.7 games fewer)

Eight more teams have won roughly as many games as their statistics would imply: Adelaide, Collingwood, Essendon, GWS, Richmond, St Kilda, Sydney, and West Coast.

That leaves four teams who've won about one game or more than we might have expected:

  • Western Bulldogs (1.5 games more)
  • Port Adelaide (1.4 games more)
  • Fremantle (1.0 games more)
  • Gold Coast (0.9 games more)

If we compare the competition ladder with the ordering we get based on Expected Wins using the Win Production Function, the major differences are:

  • Melbourne 7th on the Ladder compared to 2nd on Expected Wins
  • Geelong 8th on the Ladder compared to 3rd on Expected Wins
  • Brisbane Lions 17th on the Ladder compared to 14th on Expected Wins
  • Collingwood 2nd on the Ladder compared to 6th on Expected Wins
  • GWS 6th on the Ladder compared to 10th on Expected Wins
  • Port Adelaide 5th on the Ladder compared to 9th on Expected Wins

No other team is ranked more than two places differently on the Ladder compared to their ordering on Expected Wins.