MatterOfStats 2018 : Team Dashboard for Round 13

The latest Team Dashboard appears below.

(Note that, as is custom on MoS, it is ordered firstly based on each team's competition points per game played to account for the fact that some teams have now played fewer games than others. This demotes Geelong relative to the official competition ladder.)

This week we'll once again look at how teams are performing relative to what might be expected given their scoring statistics and the MoS Win Production Function.

Five teams have now won about one or more games fewer than their statistics would imply:

  • Brisbane Lions (2.3 games fewer)
  • Geelong (1.3 games fewer)
  • Melbourne (1.0 games fewer)
  • North Melbourne (0.9 games fewer)
  • Carlton (0.7 games fewer)

Seven more teams have won roughly as many games as their statistics would imply: Adelaide, Collingwood, Essendon, GWS, Hawthorn, Richmond, and St Kilda.

That leaves six teams who've won about one game or more than we might have expected:

  • Western Bulldogs (1.4 games more)
  • West Coast (1.3 games more)
  • Gold Coast (1.0 games more)
  • Fremantle (0.9 games more)
  • Port Adelaide (0.8 games more)
  • Sydney (0.7 games more)

If we compare the competition ladder (using the methodology applied on the Dashboard) with the ordering we get based on Expected Wins using the Win Production Function, the major differences are:

  • Melbourne 4th on the Ladder compared to 1st on Expected Wins
  • Brisbane Lions 17th on the Ladder compared to 14th on Expected Wins

No other team is ranked more than two places differently on the Ladder compared to their ordering on Expected Wins.