MatterOfStats 2026 : Team Dashboard for Round 15

Below is the latest Ranking on Dashboard Metrics table, which now suggests that both Collingwood and St Kilda are unlucky to not be in the Top 10, and that the Dogs and Roos are perhaps lucky to be there.

(Note that byes still mean we revert to Match Ratio and then percentage to determine ladder positions.)

The metrics currently most rank correlated with ladder position are:

  • MoS Win Production Function: +0.89

  • Own Goals per Game: +0.85

  • Own Points per Game: +0.85

  • Q2 Performances: +0.8

  • Own Scoring Shots per Game: +0.77

  • Percentage of Quarters Won: +0.72

Those least rank correlated with ladder position are:

  • Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.34

  • Q4 Performances: +0.4

  • Q1 Performances: +0.43

It been a while since I can remember Percentage of Quarters Won not being very highly correlated with ladder position, underscored by the very low correlation between Q4 and Q1 performances and ladder position.

This season so far, for the most part, the game is being won and lost in the middle quarters.

Next, here’s the latest top half of the Team Dashboard, which shows, among other things, that:

  • Only three teams have a winning streak of three games or more

  • Only three teams have a losing streak of three games or more

  • Sydney have converted at a rate almost 10% points higher than their opponents

  • West Coast have converted at a rate over 8% points lower than their opponents

  • Sydney have generated almost 30 scoring shots per game and Richmond only 19

  • Fremantle have conceded only 20 scoring shots per game and Richmond 29

  • According to the MoS Win Production Function

    • Western Bulldogs have won 2.5 games more than expected based on their scoring statistics

    • Fremantle have won 1.6 games more than expected

    • Port Adelaide have won 2.7 games fewer than expected

    • Essendon have won 1.7 games fewer than expected

    • St Kilda have won 1.6 games fewer than expected

Next, here’s the bottom half, with quarter-by-quarter statistics, that shows:

  • Fremantle and Sydney remain the only teams to have outscored their opponents in all four quarters

  • Richmond and West Coast remain the only teams to have been outscored by their opponents in all four quarters

  • Richmond have scored 33% of their points in Q2s.

  • West Coast have scored 32% of their points in Q3s, but only 18% in Q1s. They’ve converted at only 39% in Q1s

  • Essendon have scored 33% of their points in Q4s. Their opponents have converted at 61% in Q1s

  • St Kilda have conceded only 17% of their points in Q1s where their opponents have converted at only 47%

  • Gold Coast has converted at 69% in Q1s, but only 41% in Q4s

  • Brisbane Lions and Carlton are both noteworthy for the difference between their opponents’ conversion rates in Q3 and Q4 compared to Q1 and Q2