MatterOfStats 2015 : Team Dashboard for Round 10

Fremantle's loss and another Hawthorn win have brought their winning rates more into line with their scoring statistics, but Fremantle remains about 1 game ahead of what those statistics imply and Hawthorn remains about 2.5 games behind.

For only one other team is the difference between actual and expected wins more than a whole game in absolute terms: West Coast, who've won 1.3 games fewer than their scoring statistics imply.

We've not reviewed the rank correlations between team ladder positions and other of the metrics on the Team Dashboard for a few weeks, so let's do that now.

The rank correlation between competition ladder position and:

  • Own Scoring Shot Production is +0.82
  • Opponent Scoring Shot Production is +0.87
  • Own Scoring Shot Conversion is +0.44
  • Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion is +0.57
  • Q1 Performances is +0.59
  • Q2 Performances is +0.73
  • Q3 Performances is +0.76
  • Q4 Performances is +0.70

So, it seems that Scoring Shot Production has been more important than Scoring Shot Conversion so far this season, and that Q3 performances have been most associated with victory and ladder position. Q1 performances have been notably less relevant so far.

The Own Scoring Shot Conversion correlation with ladder position is reduced most significantly by the statistics for:

  • GWS (5th on the ladder but 16th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion)
  • Geelong (10th on the ladder but 1st on Own Scoring Shot Conversion)
  • Sydney (2nd on the ladder but 11th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion)
  • Carlton (17th on the ladder but 9th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion)
  • St Kilda (14th on the ladder but 6th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion)

The Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion correlation is reduced most significantly by the statistics for:

  • West Coast (3rd on the ladder but 14th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion)
  • Essendon (13th on the ladder but 5th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion)
  • Geelong (10th on the ladder but 2nd on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion)
  • Western Bulldogs (11th on the ladder but 18th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion)