Measuring the Surprise in a Season's Results

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In the previous blog we looked at the average level of surprisals generated by teams and by team pairings across all of VFL/AFL history and during the most-recent seasons. Today, as promised in that blog, I'm going to analyse surprisals using the same general methodology, but by season.
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The Changing Nature of Home Team Probability

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The original motivation for this blog was to provide additional context for the previous blog on victory probabilities for portions of games. That blog looked at the relationship between the TAB Bookmaker's pre-game assessment of the Home team's chances and the subsequent success or otherwise of the Home team in portions - Quarters, Halfs and so on - of the game under review.
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