2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 8

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 8 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Sydney and Hawthorn: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); roughly 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 30-40% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Fremantle and Brisbane Lions: roughly 97-98% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 60-70% chances of Top 4; roughly 5-15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Geelong: about 90% chances of being finalists; roughly 35% chances of Top 4; roughly 2% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Gold Coast, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, and Adelaide: about 70-80% chances of being finalists; about 5-15% chances of Top 4; about <0.5-1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Melbourne and St Kilda: about 60% chances of being finalists; about 5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. GWS: about 35% chances of being finalists; about 1% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Port Adelaide: about 40% chances of being finalists; about 3% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. North Melbourne: about 20% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. Carlton: about 3% chances of being finalists; about <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  10. Essendon, West Coast, and Richmond: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below.

We have then:

  • 12 teams with about or better than 1-in-2 chances of finishing Top 10

  • Seven teams with about or better than a 1-in-6 chance of finishing Top 4

WINS AND LADDER FINISHES

In the table below we look at the average ladder finish for each team for a given number of home and away wins.

We see that:

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 10th for most teams for 12 wins

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 6th for most teams for 14.5 wins

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 4th for most teams for for 16.5 wins

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 2nd for most teams for for 18.5 wins

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with rough fair prices shown in brackets):

  • Hawthorn ($4.20)

  • Sydney ($4.25)

  • Brisbane Lions ($6.25)

  • Fremantle ($9)

  • Geelong ($13)

  • Gold Coast ($32)

  • Collingwood ($32)

  • Western Bulldogs ($40)

  • Adelaide ($50)

  • St Kilda ($65)

  • Melbourne ($75)

  • GWS ($110)

  • Port Adelaide ($210)

  • North Melbourne ($720)

  • Carlton ($2,100)

  • Essendon ($85,000)

  • West Coast ($500,000)

COMBINATIONS IN TOP X TEAMS

In the latest 1,000,000 simulation replicates there were:

  • 999,849 different Top 18s

  • 915,472 different Top 10s (and 2,057 different sets of 10 teams in them)

  • 8,762 different Top 4s (and 777 different sets of 4 teams in them)

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are all lower compared to last week’s, and are:

  • MINOR PREMIER: There’s about a 1-in-9 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (down to 11% from 19%)

  • DOUBLE CHANCE: There’s about a 1-in-4 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (down to 26% from 32%)

  • AVOID WILDCARD ROUND: There’s about a 3-in-10 chance that 6th will be decided on percentages (down to 31% from 37%)

  • MAKE FINALS: There’s about a 7-in-20 chance that 10th will be decided on percentages (down to 34% from 36%)