2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 1

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 1 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Western Bulldogs: about 95% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 60% chances of Top 4; roughly 25% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Hawthorn and Brisbane Lions: about 85 to 90% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 45 to 50% chances of Top 4; roughly 10 to 15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Gold Coast, Sydney, and Adelaide: about 80% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 35 to 40% chances of Top 4; roughly 5 to 10% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Geelong, Fremantle, Collingwood, and GWS: about 65 to 75% chances of being finalists; roughly 20 to 30% chances of Top 4; roughly 5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Melbourne: about 50% chances of being finalists; about 12% chances of Top 4; about 2% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. St Kilda and North Melbourne: about 30 to 40% chances of being finalists; about 5 to 10% chances of Top 4; about 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Port Adelaide, Carlton, and Richmond: about 15 to 25% chances of being finalists; about 2 to 4% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. West Coast and Essendon: about 5 to 10% chances of being finalists; about 1% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below.

We have then 11 teams with about or better than 1-in-2 chances of finishing Top 10, eight with about or better than a 3-in-10 chance of finishing Top 4, and five with about or better than 1-in-11 chances of finishing as the Minor Premier.

No team yet has a less than 1-in-15 chance of playing Finals (even though they’re almost a 30% chance for the Spoon).

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with rough fair prices shown in brackets):

  • Western Bulldogs ($4.50)

  • Hawthorn ($7)

  • Brisbane Lions ($10)

  • Adelaide ($11)

  • Gold Coast ($12)

  • Sydney ($12.50)

  • Geelong ($16)

  • Fremantle ($18)

  • Collingwood ($22)

  • GWS ($40)

  • Melbourne ($40)

  • St Kilda ($100)

  • North Melbourne ($150)

  • Carlton ($250)

  • Port Adelaide ($300)

  • Richmond ($600)

  • West Coast ($1,500)

  • Essendon ($1,600)

COMBINATIONS IN TOP X TEAMS

In the latest 1,000,000 simulation replicates there were:

  • 1,000,000 different Top 18s

  • 999,219 different Top 10s (and 17,487 different sets of 10 teams in them)

  • 35,577 different Top 4s (and 2,500 different sets of 4 teams in them)

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are:

  • MINOR PREMIER: There’s about a 1-in-6 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (down to 16% from 18%)

  • DOUBLE CHANCE: There’s about a 3-in-10 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (down to 28% from 31%)

  • AVOID WILDCARD ROUND: There’s about a 3-in-10 chance that 6th will be decided on percentages (down to 31% from 33%)

  • MAKE FINALS: There’s about a 1-in-3 chance that 10th will be decided on percentages (down to 32% from 33%)