2021 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 14
/To me - and I admit I might be in a small echoey theatre all but alone in applauding on this one - it’s fascinating to watch how the markets respond to a result from a game involving the top teams, and to compare it to how emotionless models respond to that same result. The Dogs’ loss to the Cats in Round 14 has provided a perfect example of this.
But, more on that in a moment.
In the meantime, based on the latest Standard Methodology simulations, we still have 11 teams that have a better than 1-in-5 shot at playing Finals, and eight that have about a 2-in-3 or better shot. There are also five teams that have roughly a 1-in-2 shot or better at the Top 4.
Under the Heretical Methodology, there are also 11 teams that have a better than 1-in-5 shot at playing Finals, and also eight that have about a 2-in-3 or better shot. There are also five teams that have a roughly 1-in-2 shot or better at the Top 4.
(For details about the methodologies I’ve used, see this earlier blog. Note that I have assumed no change in fixturing for the remainder of the season except for switching the future Swans v Saints game to be a home game for the Saints)
LADDER FINISHES
Team Expected Wins under the Standard Methodology grew by 0.7 wins this week for Geelong and Port Adelaide, and fell by the same amount for Gold Coast.
The only significant moves in terms of Finals chances were Port Adelaide’s and GWS’s increases of around 6% points, and Carlton’s decrease by just over 4% points. Port Adelaide also saw their Top 4 chances increase by 13% points to 49%, while Geelong saw theirs increase by 8% points to 76%.
Also, according to both the Standard and the Heretical Methodology, the Dogs are around 40% to 50% chances for the Minor Premiership now, while the Dees are around 30 to 35% chances, those estimates despite the Dogs’ loss to the Cats. And, curiously to me, the Eagles are currently favourites to beat the Dogs in Round 15 (albeit that they are likely playing at home).
STANDARD METHODOLOGY
HERETICAL METHODOLOGY
The range of Expected Wins using the Standard Methodology across the 18 teams moved to about 12.3 wins this week, while using the Heretical Methodology it came in at 13.6 wins.
The animation below shows how each team’s ladder probabilities have varied across the season so far.
Of the five teams that started with a 0-2 record (Brisbane Lions, Carlton, GWS, Essendon, and North Melbourne), the Standard Methodology now estimates that there’s about a 99.6% chance at least one of them will end up playing Finals.
Across the 50,000 simulations there are 27,772 different sets of teams playing Finals, treating different orderings of the same eight teams as a different set. No ordering appears in more than 51 replicates. If we ignore ordering, there are 436 different sets of eight Finalists (which is down quite a bit on last week).
Amongst the teams currently in the Top 8, the estimated probability that any 4 through 8 of them play Finals is:
All 8: 24%
Only 7: 57%
Only 6: 17%
Only 5: 0.9%
Only 4: 0.003%
Put another way, there’s about a 76% estimated chance that the teams playing Finals won’t be the current Top 8 teams.
TEAM AND POSITION CONCENTRATION
The HHI figures for the most recent Standard Methodology simulation replicates appear below.
(For information about the HHI, also see that previous blog linked to earlier).
We see a reduction of over one full spot in final ladder position uncertainty this week only for Essendon, Carlton, GWS, and Gold Coast, and an increase of over half of one full spot for Western Bulldogs.
GWS, Essendon, Fremantle, and Carlton, remain the teams with greatest uncertainty about the positions in which they’ll finish on the ladder, each of them effectively competing now for about 9 ladder spots (with Collingwood not far behind). North Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, and Melbourne still have least uncertainty, and are all effectively competing for only about 1.5 to 4 spots.
Geelong and Brisbane Lions are next most-certain, both effectively competing still for about 6 ladder positions.
After 14 rounds, the average team is still effectively competing for about 7 different ladder positions.
Last week saw decreases in the uncertainty associated with all but four ladder positions, with the largest increase for 1st, and the largest decreases for 8th, 9th, and 10th.
Positions 6th through 14th are the ones that are associated with most uncertainty, and some of the top and tail positions - 1st through 3rd, and 17th and 18th - with least uncertainty.
There are now, effectively, only about 3.1 teams vying for the Minor Premiership, and just 1.4 battling for the Spoon.
IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE
The Standard Methodology simulations now suggest that it’s slightly likely this week than it was last week that 8th place will be determined by percentage.
There is now an estimated 35% chance that 8th and 9th will finish equal on competition points (which is down about 4% points), a 10% chance that 8th and 10th will, and a 2% chance that 8th and 11th will.
There’s also still about a 37% chance that the double-chance in the Finals will be determined by percentage.
WINS TO MAKE The 8 AND THE 4
Based on the Standard Methodology, the estimates of team chances of playing Finals should they finish on only 11 wins still mostly lie in the 25% to 40% range, although they are a little lower for Fremantle, Adelaide, and St Kilda. Team chances still also mostly lie in the 75% to 90% range should a team record 12 wins, although they are also a little lower for Fremantle, St Kilda and Adelaide.
Looking next at making the Top 4, we see that teams’ chances range from about 20% to 60% with 14 wins, and 65% to 95% with 15 wins, with the Lions and Dogs still faring best, and Sydney and West Coast still faring worst.
HOW MANY WINS TO FINISH WHERE
Now a look at what the Standard Methodology shows for the joint distribution of number of wins and final ladder position for each team.
WINS FOR A PARTICULAR LADDER POSITION
And, finally, an update on the distribution of wins associated with each ladder position.
It’s still the case that 12 wins rather than 11 is more likely to be associated with the team finishing 8th, but 15 wins is now slightly more likely than 14 wins to be associated with the team finishing 4th.
GAME IMPORTANCE
Finally, let’s take a look at how the Standard Methodology estimates the importance of each of the remaining 81 games (see this blog for details about how these are calculated).
This week, again, I’m going to present the importance information by showing the 10 most important games for each team (except, again, for North Melbourne, for whom no game can budge their finals chances from 0)
Round 15, then, includes:
Likely very important games for: Essendon, Fremantle, GWS, Richmond, Sydney, and West Coast
Likely moderately important games for: Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, Carlton, Collingwood, Port Adelaide, and St Kilda
