2012 - Simulations After Round 21

Compared to the simulations at the end of Round 20, the latest simulations see: 

  • Adelaide's minor premiership chances plummet from 49% to under 5%. It's conceivable now, though barely, that they could finish at low as 6th.
  • Carlton's chances of making the finals rise from 13% to 35%
  • Collingwood's Top 4 chances drop from 94% to 80%, and its minor premiership chances virtually extinguished after having been assessed at about 11% last week
  • Essendon's chances of playing finals football dive from 26% to just over 1%
  • Fremantle's chances of competing in the finals rising from 43% to 62%
  • Geelong's Top 8 chances rise from 95% to 99%
  • The Gold Coast virtually handing the Wooden Spoon to GWS, the Suns' Spoon chances now rated at only just over 1%
  • GWS preparing its Spoon Acceptance speech
  • Hawthorn lifting its minor premiership chances from 16% to 49%. (Curiously, the Hawks are now more likely to finish 1st, 3rd or 4th than they are to finish 2nd.)
  • The Roos' Top 4 chances inch up from about 1% to just under 4%, and their chances of a Top 8 spot reach 100%
  • Richmond's Top 8 chances disappear (they were assessed at just over 2% last week)
  • St Kilda's Top 8 chances drop from 26% to under 3%
  • Sydney's minor premiership chances climb from 24% to 47%
  • West Coast's Top 4 chances rise from about 7% to 19% and their Top 8 chances reach 100%


To help you assess the validity of these latest simulations for yourself, here are the simulated probabilities for the results of each of the remaining 18 games in the home-and-away season, upon which the simulated ladder positions discussed above are based.

Turning to the TAB AFL Futures Markets and using the results of these latest simulations, only two wagers offer an edge of at least 5%: 

- Hawthorn for the minor premiership at $2.20 (estimated 7% edge)

- The Roos for a Top 4 finish at $34 (estimated 29% edge)