WoSHBODS tipped 6 from 9 winners again this week, and recorded a Margin MAE of only 13.3 points per game and a Totals MAE of 18.3 points per game. That took it to a season long 74% accuracy, 17.4 Margin MAE, and 20.6 Totals MAE.
Read MoreOne final unders wager for Investors today
The bookmakers continue to play ducks and drakes with the AFLW Totals markets, today waiting until about 12:20pm in the TAB’s case to post markets. Sportsbet posted them about 45 minutes earlier.
Anyway, WoSHBODS likes three of them, two as overs and one as unders
WoSHBODS’ is tipping two upsets this week: Gold Coast to beat Richmond, and Sydney to beat Port Adelaide. Neither would be huge upsets, but dogs beating favourites they would nonetheless be.
It expects:
Sydney (56) to be the highest scoring team
Fremantle (7) to be the lowest scoring team
Port Adelaide v Sydney (103) to be the highest scoring game
Fremantle v North Melbourne (54) to be the lowest scoring game
It also expects 4.0 home teams to win, and 6.6 favourites.
Read MoreSo, roughly speaking, WoSHBODS currently groups the teams as folows:
Tier 1 (99%+ chances to play Finals and 90% for Top 4): Melbourne, North Melbourne, and Adelaide
Tier 2 (90%+ chances to play Finals): Brisbane, Gold Coast, and Geelong
Tier 3 (40-60% chances to play Finals): Richmond, Carlton,15- and Essendon
Tier 4 (10-20% chances to play Finals): Collingwood, St Kilda, and Sydney
Tier 5 (2-7% chances to play Finals): Fremantle and Hawthorn
Tier 6 (Less than 0.2% chances to play Finals): Port Adelaide, GWS, Western Bulldogs, and West Coast
The big movers this week in terms of Finals chances were:
Carlton: +17% points (to 46%)
Collingwood: +16% points (to 32%)
St Kilda: +11% points (to 21%)
Richmond: -22% points (to 39%)
Sydney: -14% points (to 17%)
WoSHBODS tipped 6 from 9 winners this week, and recorded a Margin MAE of 18.7 points per game and a Totals MAE of 18.2 points per game. That took it to a season long 76% accuracy, 18.2 Margin MAE, and 21.1 Totals MAE.
Read MoreInvestors have taken the unders in the first two Sunday games whilst awaiting a TAB market for the third.
As I type this, which is about 40 minutes out from the first game of the day, Sportsbet have no overs/unders markets for any of the four Friday games, and the TAB have markets for all of them.
So, because I have client work to be getting on with (report writing - please contain your excitement) and no faith that Sportsbet will eventually post anything, Investors have waded into these markets armed only with TAB prices. Three of which, we like. See below.
Almost missed this one (Thursday 6:15 start?). Anyway, we’ve taken the overs.
WoSHBODS’ is tipping only one upset this week, which is for Sydney to defeat the Blues away at Ikon Park. Otherwise, it’s favourites everywhere you look, and by an average expected margin of almost 21 points per game.
Read MoreBelow is a summary of the latest simulation results for the AFLW (produced using a version of the methodology described in this blog post).
So, roughly speaking, WoSHBODS currently groups the teams as folows:
Tier 1 (99%+ chances to play Finals and 80% for Top 4): Melbourne, North Melbourne, and Adelaide
Tier 2 (90%+ chances to play Finals): Brisbane, Gold Coast, and Geelong
Tier 3 (60-70% chances to play Finals): Richmond and Essendon
Tier 4 (30% chances to play Finals): Carlton and Sydney
Tier 5 (10-20% chances to play Finals): Collingwood and St Kilda
Tier 5 (0.5-2.5% chances to play Finals): Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, and Western Bulldogs
Tier 6 (Less than 0.5% chances to play Finals): GWS and West Coast
After 4 weeks, WoSHBODS is at 78% accuracy and has an 18.0 Margin MAE and a 21.8 Totals MAE. There isn’t much around to compare those number to, but they seem quite acceptable to me.
Read MoreNow that we’re in on the scheme we know to start looking for over/under markets about an hour or two before game time, and today WoSHBODS finds value in four of the five contests.
To say that the TAB’s and Sportsbet’s approach to Totals markets for the AFLW seems haphazard would be to state the obvious. Markets for two of the three 1:05 games today went up sometime in the last hour or so. Investors are on them both, as shown below.
(Note also that this table corrects an error in the GWS v Adelaide game where Investors have Adelaide -35.5 not -36.5 as previously advised.
So, it appears that the TAB and Sportsbet might now be offering overs/unders markets, albeit only quite close to the game if today is any indication.
Anyway, we’ve tahen u109.5 on this afternoon’s game for 5% of the Fund. All overs/unders wagers this year will be of the same size..
WoSHBODS’ assessments of the relative merits of a number of teams continues to deviate from the bookmakers’, which has resulted in its forecasting generally larger margins including by as much as 3 goals in some cases.
Read MoreBelow is a summary of the latest simulation results for the AFLW (produced using a version of the methodology described in this blog post).
So, roughly speaking, WoSHBODS currently groups the teams as folows:
Tier 1 (90%+ chances to play Finals): Melbourne, North Melbourne, Adelaide, Gold Coast, and Geelong
Tier 2 (80% chances to play Finals): Brisbane
Tier 3 (50% chances to play Finals): Richmond and Essendon
Tier 4 (35-40% chances to play Finals): Collingwood, Carlton, and Sydney
Tier 5 (2.5-8% chances to play Finals): Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, and St Kilda
Tier 6 (1% or less chances to play Finals): Western Bulldogs, GWS, and West Coast
Three weeks in now, and WoSHBODS has tipped 78% of the winners, registered an 18.8 points per game margin MAE, and facilitated a 23% ROI on wagering. Be hard not to be happy about that.
Read MoreAfter a second good week on forecasting, WoSHBODS returns with its thought on nine new games, which include forecasted margins of two goals or more in all but two games. They also include three forecasted Totals of more than 100 points after Round 2’s average of just under 90 points per game.
Read MoreAs foreshadowed last week, this week sees large movements in WoSHBODS’ assessment of the 18 teams’ Finals chances, as recorded in the table below (produced using a version of the methodology described in this blog post).
(We should also expect fairly large movements again next week.)
Read MoreIt was fairly easy to predict winners in Round 2, but much harder to predict Margins and Totals, which is why WoSHBODS picked 8 of the 9 winners, but ended the round with a 19.9 Margin MAE and a 19.3 Total MAE.
Read MoreIn this blog there are the first ever WoSHBODS simulations for the remainder of the season and for the Finals.
They use the same hot sims methodology that I’ve employed over on the men’s site and that I’ve described in this blog post, with suitably reparameterised negative binomial and beta binomial models for simulating individual game results.
They are also subject to very high levels of uncertainty because they’re based on relatively few historical games, and because the women’s game is developing rapidly and at different paces across teams.
Read MoreAfter an excellent start to the 2023 AFLW season, WoSHBODS is back for Week 2 after having made some sizeable changes to individual team ratings, which is its habit now in the early rounds of new seasons.
Read MoreBack in the dimest of darkest of ages. when I was younger yet less wise, I wagered on men’s AFL for the first time, and, in 2023, I did the same thing on AFLW and emerged with a small profit (despite eschewing my “never bet head-to-head on away teams” ethos.
I’ll definitely take that.
I also emerged with a 16.4 Margin MAE, and a 17.8 Totals MAE, which I will also take.
Read MoreWe’re back again for the 2023 AFLW season with a re-optimised WoSHBODS model and a willingness to put that model to the test against the bookmakers.
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