2024 - Round 11 : It's Complicated

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This round looks quite a bit like last week, with three games expected to be won by less than 2 goals, three more expected to be won by about 3 goals, and the remaining three expected to be won by between about 5 and 7 goals. The expected number of favourite wins is 6.4 from 9 and the average expected margin is 21.3 points per game.

Also, the average ladder places between opponents this week is sizeable again at 6.8 places per game. In five of the games the teams are separated on the ladder by 4 or fewer places, but we also have 2nd v 17th, 4th v 18th, and 1st v 11th.

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2024 - Round 10 Results - We Applaud the Trend

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Only five early-week favourites bagged the four points this week, but some contrarian tipping allowed scores as high as seven for Home Sweet Home, and sixes for the RSMP twins, Consult the Ladder, and MoSSBODS_Marg. The Leaderboard is still headed by Bookie Knows Best, who now maintains a one tip lead over ENS_Linear and all three of the MoS family.

The all-Tipster average for the round came in at 5.7 from 9, which took the season-long figure to 57.8 from 90 (64%).

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2024 - Round 10 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 5:30PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Dees by 31 points.


UPDATE 3PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Port Adelaide by 27 points.

UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Saints by 3 points and Lions by 44 points.

UPDATE 4:15PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Giants by 14 points (and also has some new views on the Sunday games with the further squad announcements).

UPDATE 7:15PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay’s preliminary views on the remaining games of the round.

UPDATE 6:45PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Cats by 7 points.

UPDATE 7PM WEDNESDAY

MoSHPlay’s preliminary view is the Cats by 5 points.

2024 - Team Ratings After Round 9

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It was another week of ranking turmoil, with 10 teams changing places on MoSSBODS (all but one of them in the top half) and 12 teams changing places on MoSHBODS.

There was only one multi-spot mover on MoSSBODS, however (Melbourne up 2 into 3rd), but four multi-spot movers on MoSHBODS, including Collingwood up 3 into 3rd and Geelong down 3 into 4th.

At the end of it all, MoSSBODS’ Top 3 is Collingwood, Sydney, and Melbourne, and MoSHBODS’ is Sydney, Melbourne, and Collingwood.

On both Systems, the Ratings remain compressed at the top. On MoSSBODS, 1st and 11th are separated by only 4 Scoring Shots (which is about 15 points), and on MoSHBODS, 1st and 10th are separated by only 15 points.

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2024 - Round 10 : Onwards

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This round looks nothing like the last few, with only three games expected to be won by less than 2 goals, two more expected to be won by between about 3 and 3-and-a-half goals, and the remaining four expected to be won by between about 4-and-a-half and 7-and-a-half goals. The expected number of favourite wins is 6.5 from 9 and the average expected margin is 22.6 points per game.

Also, the average ladder places between opponents this week is a sizeable 7.7, including 3rd v 18th and 4th v 16th. In no contest are the participants separated by fewer than 4 spots on the ladder, and only one game involves teams both from the Top 8: 1st v 7th.

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2024 - Round 9 Results - Tide Turner?

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Only four early-week favourites bagged the four points this week, and another snagged a draw, which kept accuracy levels generally low, the exception being MoSSBODS_Marg’s 6.5 from 8, which dragged it into a share of fourth on the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard. That Leaderboard is still headed by Bookie Knows Best, who maintains a one tip lead over ENS_Linear and MoSHPlay_Marg.

The all-Tipster average for the round came in at 4.8 from 9, which took the season-long figure to 52.1 from 81 (64%).

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2024 - Round 9 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 3:15PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Crows by a goal.

UPDATE 12:30PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Pies by 6 goals.

UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 16 points and Suns by 33 points.

UPDATE 4PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at the Giants by 7 points.

UPDATE 1:15PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at the Saints by a point.

UPDATE 7:15PM THURSDAY

Here are MoSHPlay’s preliminary views of the remaining games of the round.

UPDATE 6:45PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay’s finishes at Dees by 4 points.

UPDATE 9:30PM WEDNESDAY

MoSHPlay’s preliminary view is Dees by 1 point.

2024 - Team Ratings After Round 8

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Only two teams retained their positions on MoSSBODS this week, including the Roos in last, while on MoSHBODS things were much quieter with only nine teams moving. Ratings compression had quite a lot to do with the level of change.

The multi-spot movers on both were Sydney (up 4 on MoSSBODS and 2 on MoSHBODS), Carlton (down 2 on both), and GWS (down 4 on MoSSBODS and 2 on MoSHBODS).

At the end of it all, MoSSBODS’ Top 3 is Sydney, Collingwood, and Carlton, and MoSHBODS’ is Geelong, Sydney, and Melbourne.

On both Systems, the Ratings remain compressed at the top. On MoSSBODS, 1st and 11th are separated by only 4.2 Scoring Shots (which is about 15 points), and on MoSHBODS, 1st and 10th are separated by only just over 12 points.

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2024 - Round 9 : The Funds Have No Memory

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In another challenging week for forecasters, five of the nine matches are expected to be won by less than 2 goals, and two more by less than 4 goals, leaving only the two expected 7-goal blowouts as something approaching bankers. The expected number of favourite wins is only 5.1 from 9 and the average expected margin is just 18.2 points per game.

Also, the average ladder places between opponents this week is a tiny 4.3, aided by the fact that all of the teams currently in the Top 8 meet another from the Top 8.

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2024 - Round 8 Results - Not Laughing Now

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Only five early-week favourites bagged the four points this week, but only ENS_Linear and MoSHPlay_Marg managed better than five and they, as a result, have moved into joint 2nd and now just one tip behind Bookie Knows Best.

Two other Tipsters, MoSSBODS_Marg and Consult the Ladder, scored only four, which levelled the all-Tipster average for the round at exactly 5 from 9. That took the season-long figure to 47.3 from 72 (66%).

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2024 - Round 8 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE SUNDAY 6:30PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Lions by 16 points.

UPDATE SUNDAY 12:15PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Fremantle by 6 points.


UPDATE SATURDAY 7:30PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Essendon by 10 points.

UPDATE SATURDAY 6:45PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Melbourne by 2 points.

UPDATE SATURDAY 4PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Saints by 5 goals.

UPDATE FRIDAY 7PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Blues by 8 points.

UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM

Here’s MoSHPlay’s preliminary views about the rest of the round

UPDATE THURSDAY 6:45PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Port Adelaide by 3 points

UPDATE WEDNESDAY 10:15PM

MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of our Thursday fare is Port Adelaide by 1 point.

2024 - Team Ratings After Round 7

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Although not reaching the same levels as last week, there was still quite a bit of movement on the MoS Team Rating System ladders this week, yet again heavily influenced by the compressed nature of those ratings. MoSSBODS reranked 12 teams, though only five by more than a single spot, and MoSHBODS reranked only eight, and just three by more than a single spot.

The multi-spot movers on both were GWS (up 3 on MoSSBODS and 2 on MoSHBODS), Sydney (up 2 on MoSSBODS and 3 on MoSHBODS), and Melbourne (down 2 on both).

At the end of it all the MoS twins still don’t agree about which team is 1st or 2nd, MoSSBODS having it as Blues and Cats, and MoSHBODS Cats and Blues.

On both Systems, the Ratings remain compressed at the top. On MoSSBODS, 1st and 11th are separated by only 4.2 Scoring Shots (which is about 15 points), and on MoSHBODS, 1st and 10th are separated by only 15 points.

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2024 - Round 7 Results - You Have to Laugh ...

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In an excellent round for early week favourites, they recorded an 8.5 from 9 performance, which saw Bookie Knows Best take a two tip lead on the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard. MoSHBODS_Marg was the only other Tipster to register the maximum possible score, and it now joins its MoSHPlay_Marg and ENS_Linear in joint 2nd.

The all-Tipster average for the round was 7.4 from 9, which took the season-long figure to 42.3 from 63 (67%).

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2024 - Round 7 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 3:15PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay ends at Swans by 2 goals.

UPDATE 12:15PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay ends at Suns by 5 goals.

UPDATE 7PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay ends at Dogs by 2 points.


UPDATE 3:45PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay ends at Cats by 4 points.


UPDATE 1:15PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay ends at Adelaide by 28 points.


UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay ends at Port Adelaide by 23 points.

UPDATE 10AM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of tonight’s game is Port Adelaide by 4 goals. Here, too, are its early thoughts on the other games given the squads named.

UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Giants by 5 points

UPDATE 2:45PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Pies by 15 points.

UPDATE 6:45PM WEDNESDAY

MoSHPlay’s finishes at Dees by 26 points as has some preliminary thoughts on tomorrow’s games.

UPDATE 7:15PM TUESDAY

MoSHPlay’s preliminary view is Dees by 25 points