2024 - Round 7 : Full Deck

/

We finally return to normal programming this week with a menu of 9 games that includes six currently expected to be decided by less than 20 points, and the three remaining expected to be decided by less than 30 points. The expected number of favourite wins is 5.9 from 9 and the average expected margin is 15.6 points per game.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Home Sweet Home (in 4 games), Consult The Ladder and ENS_Linear ( in 2 each), and the RSMP twins and MoSSBODS_Marg (1 each) are the lone contrarians this week amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in only three games, comprising 15 points in the Tigers v Dees, Dons v Pies, and Roos v Crows games.

Bookie_3, Bookie_9, and MoSSBODS_Marg have Extreme Predictor status in four games each this week, with no-one else managing more than two.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are only two games with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges: Roos v Crows (12% points) and Dons v Pies (11% points).

MoSSBODS_Prob has Extreme Predictor status in eight games this week, and Bookie_LPSO in five.

WAGERS

This week Investors have just three head-to-head bets totalling 4.5% of the Head-to-Head Fund, and four line bets totalling just over10% of the Line Fund, as set out below.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The round’s Ready Reckoner reveals that risk is again fairly concentrated this week, with North Melbourne carrying the largest risk (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes) this week in that the difference between a Roos win and a loss by 29 points or more represents a swing of 5.4c in the value of the Combined Portfolio. Next most risk is carried by Collingwood (4.3%), Hawthorn (3.7%), Carlton (1.9%), and then GWS (1%).

So, just five teams carry the fate of the Funds, and two of them carry about 60% of the total.

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just over 8c, while a worst case set would snip just under 8c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.