2024 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 9
/This year’s post Round 9 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:
(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)
Sydney and Geelong: 95% chances of being finalists; 70-80% chances of Top 4; 20-40% chances of being Minor Premier
Melbourne: 85% chances of being finalists; 50% chances of Top 4; 10% chances of being Minor Premier
Carlton, GWS, Collingwood, Port Adelaide, and Essendon: 65-75% chances of being finalists; 25-35% chances of Top 4; 5% chances of being Minor Premier
Brisbane Lions, Fremantle, Gold Coast, and Western Bulldogs: 35-45% chances of being finalists; 10% chances of Top 4; 0.5-1% chances of being Minor Premier
Adelaide, St Kilda, and Hawthorn: 5-10% chance of being finalists; tiny chance of Top 4; none or virtually no chance of being Minor Premier
West Coast, Richmond, and North Melbourne: none or virtually no chance of being finalists; none or virtually no chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier
There is now, then, an emerging gap between a clear Top 8 and the rest of the teams, and also a clear Top 2.
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