2024 - Round 10 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE 7PM WEDNESDAY
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view is the Cats by 5 points.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view is the Cats by 5 points.
The differences between the MoS twins’ and the bookmakers’ Totals forecasts again tend to be small again this week but with MoS totals tending a little lower.
Read MoreIt was another week of ranking turmoil, with 10 teams changing places on MoSSBODS (all but one of them in the top half) and 12 teams changing places on MoSHBODS.
There was only one multi-spot mover on MoSSBODS, however (Melbourne up 2 into 3rd), but four multi-spot movers on MoSHBODS, including Collingwood up 3 into 3rd and Geelong down 3 into 4th.
At the end of it all, MoSSBODS’ Top 3 is Collingwood, Sydney, and Melbourne, and MoSHBODS’ is Sydney, Melbourne, and Collingwood.
On both Systems, the Ratings remain compressed at the top. On MoSSBODS, 1st and 11th are separated by only 4 Scoring Shots (which is about 15 points), and on MoSHBODS, 1st and 10th are separated by only 15 points.
Read MoreThis round looks nothing like the last few, with only three games expected to be won by less than 2 goals, two more expected to be won by between about 3 and 3-and-a-half goals, and the remaining four expected to be won by between about 4-and-a-half and 7-and-a-half goals. The expected number of favourite wins is 6.5 from 9 and the average expected margin is 22.6 points per game.
Also, the average ladder places between opponents this week is a sizeable 7.7, including 3rd v 18th and 4th v 16th. In no contest are the participants separated by fewer than 4 spots on the ladder, and only one game involves teams both from the Top 8: 1st v 7th.
Read MoreOnly four early-week favourites bagged the four points this week, and another snagged a draw, which kept accuracy levels generally low, the exception being MoSSBODS_Marg’s 6.5 from 8, which dragged it into a share of fourth on the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard. That Leaderboard is still headed by Bookie Knows Best, who maintains a one tip lead over ENS_Linear and MoSHPlay_Marg.
The all-Tipster average for the round came in at 4.8 from 9, which took the season-long figure to 52.1 from 81 (64%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Crows by a goal.
MoSHPlay finishes at Pies by 6 goals.
MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 16 points and Suns by 33 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at the Giants by 7 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at the Saints by a point.
Here are MoSHPlay’s preliminary views of the remaining games of the round.
MoSHPlay’s finishes at Dees by 4 points.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view is Dees by 1 point.
With the exception of the Hawks v Saints game, there’s no more than about a goal’s difference between the MoS twins’ and the bookmakers’ Totals forecasts this week. Overall, the twins' averages come in just under the bookmakers’.
Read MoreOnly two teams retained their positions on MoSSBODS this week, including the Roos in last, while on MoSHBODS things were much quieter with only nine teams moving. Ratings compression had quite a lot to do with the level of change.
The multi-spot movers on both were Sydney (up 4 on MoSSBODS and 2 on MoSHBODS), Carlton (down 2 on both), and GWS (down 4 on MoSSBODS and 2 on MoSHBODS).
At the end of it all, MoSSBODS’ Top 3 is Sydney, Collingwood, and Carlton, and MoSHBODS’ is Geelong, Sydney, and Melbourne.
On both Systems, the Ratings remain compressed at the top. On MoSSBODS, 1st and 11th are separated by only 4.2 Scoring Shots (which is about 15 points), and on MoSHBODS, 1st and 10th are separated by only just over 12 points.
Read MoreIn another challenging week for forecasters, five of the nine matches are expected to be won by less than 2 goals, and two more by less than 4 goals, leaving only the two expected 7-goal blowouts as something approaching bankers. The expected number of favourite wins is only 5.1 from 9 and the average expected margin is just 18.2 points per game.
Also, the average ladder places between opponents this week is a tiny 4.3, aided by the fact that all of the teams currently in the Top 8 meet another from the Top 8.
Read MoreOnly five early-week favourites bagged the four points this week, but only ENS_Linear and MoSHPlay_Marg managed better than five and they, as a result, have moved into joint 2nd and now just one tip behind Bookie Knows Best.
Two other Tipsters, MoSSBODS_Marg and Consult the Ladder, scored only four, which levelled the all-Tipster average for the round at exactly 5 from 9. That took the season-long figure to 47.3 from 72 (66%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Lions by 16 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Fremantle by 6 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Essendon by 10 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Melbourne by 2 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Saints by 5 goals.
MoSHPlay finishes at Blues by 8 points.
Here’s MoSHPlay’s preliminary views about the rest of the round
MoSHPlay finishes at Port Adelaide by 3 points
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of our Thursday fare is Port Adelaide by 1 point.
There are some quite significant differences in the Totals forecasts of the MoS twins compared to the bookmakers this week, most starkly in the Swans v Giants game where the difference - which can presumably be attributed to the expected heavy rainfall in Sydney for the rest of the week - is over 6 goals.
Read MoreAnyone who tips all nine winners this week will have taken their first step towards canonisation, as four games are expected to be won by less than 4 points, and three more by only about two goals. The expected number of favourite wins is just 5.6 from 9 and the average expected margin is a ridiculous 11.5 points per game.
Read MoreAlthough not reaching the same levels as last week, there was still quite a bit of movement on the MoS Team Rating System ladders this week, yet again heavily influenced by the compressed nature of those ratings. MoSSBODS reranked 12 teams, though only five by more than a single spot, and MoSHBODS reranked only eight, and just three by more than a single spot.
The multi-spot movers on both were GWS (up 3 on MoSSBODS and 2 on MoSHBODS), Sydney (up 2 on MoSSBODS and 3 on MoSHBODS), and Melbourne (down 2 on both).
At the end of it all the MoS twins still don’t agree about which team is 1st or 2nd, MoSSBODS having it as Blues and Cats, and MoSHBODS Cats and Blues.
On both Systems, the Ratings remain compressed at the top. On MoSSBODS, 1st and 11th are separated by only 4.2 Scoring Shots (which is about 15 points), and on MoSHBODS, 1st and 10th are separated by only 15 points.
Read MoreIn an excellent round for early week favourites, they recorded an 8.5 from 9 performance, which saw Bookie Knows Best take a two tip lead on the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard. MoSHBODS_Marg was the only other Tipster to register the maximum possible score, and it now joins its MoSHPlay_Marg and ENS_Linear in joint 2nd.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 7.4 from 9, which took the season-long figure to 42.3 from 63 (67%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay ends at Swans by 2 goals.
MoSHPlay ends at Suns by 5 goals.
MoSHPlay ends at Dogs by 2 points.
MoSHPlay ends at Cats by 4 points.
MoSHPlay ends at Adelaide by 28 points.
MoSHPlay ends at Port Adelaide by 23 points.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of tonight’s game is Port Adelaide by 4 goals. Here, too, are its early thoughts on the other games given the squads named.
MoSHPlay finishes at Giants by 5 points
MoSHPlay finishes at Pies by 15 points.
MoSHPlay’s finishes at Dees by 26 points as has some preliminary thoughts on tomorrow’s games.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view is Dees by 25 points
The MoS twins are again expecting lower totals this weekend than are the bookmakers, but only very slightly. In most cases the opinions of all four forecasters are quite similar.
Read MoreWe finally return to normal programming this week with a menu of 9 games that includes six currently expected to be decided by less than 20 points, and the three remaining expected to be decided by less than 30 points. The expected number of favourite wins is 5.9 from 9 and the average expected margin is 15.6 points per game.
Read MoreWhen ratings are compressed, one obvious possibility is dramatic changes in team rankings, and that is indeed what we’ve seen this week on both MoS Team Rating Systems. All but four teams moved places on MoSSBODS, 10 of them by more than a single spot, and all but five teams moved places on MoSHBODS, nine of them by more than a single spot.
Some of the most dramatic moves came at the top of the leaderboards, with Carlton climbing five spots to take 1st on MoSSBODS and climbing four spots to take 2nd on MoSHBODS, while Collingwood rose seven spots on MoSSBODS into 2nd, and four spots on MoSHBODS into 5th.
At the end of it all the MoS twins agree about which teams are in the Top 6 but about none of their exact ranking.
Ans, on both Systems, the Ratings remain quite compressed at the top. On MoSSBODS, 1st and 11th are separated by only 4.5 Scoring Shots (which is about 16 points), and on MoSHBODS, 1st and 10th are separated by only 16.5 points. Chances are that we’ll see more upheaval in the weeks to come.
Read MoreEarly week favourites again only won 4 of the 8 games this week, which made for generally low Head-to-Head Tipster scores. Best were Control The Ladder, MoSHPlay_Marg, and ENS_Linear’s 5 from 8, and worst were the RSMP twins 3 from 8.
That ENS_Linear performance was enough to lift it into a share of 1st place with Bookie Knows Best, both of them one tip ahead of MoSHPlay_Marg.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 4.1 from 8, which took the season-long figure to 34.9 from 54 (65%).
Read MoreMAFL is a website for ...