2024 - Round 10 : Overs/Unders

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The differences between the MoS twins’ and the bookmakers’ Totals forecasts again tend to be small again this week but with MoS totals tending a little lower.

There is a rare showing of anonymity in opinions about this week’s highests and lowests:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • All: GWS v Western Bulldogs

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • All: St Kilda v Fremantle

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Essendon

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Richmond

WAGERS

Investors have a season-high seven wagers this week, five unders and two overs, and all of a modest size because the estimated overlays are small. So small are they, in fact, that under last years’ minimum overlay rules, only one of them would have been permitted.

Those estimated overlays for the games where we’ve wagers range from 4 to about 8 points, and the wager sizes range from 1.2% to 3.6% accordingly.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were shared amongst only MoSSBODS and the TAB in Round 9:

  • Game Margins: MoSSBODS

  • Home Team Scores: TAB

  • Away Team Scores: MoSSBODS

  • Game Totals: MoSSBODS

Just one season-long title switched hands this week as the TAB surrendered the Away Team Score title to MoSSBODS. The leads across all four metrics are now as follows:

Game Margins: Sportsbet 4 points ahead of the TAB and 73 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS 17 points ahead of MoSSBODS and 38 points ahead of the TAB

Away Team Scores: MoSSBODS 5 points ahead of the TAB and 9 points ahead of Sportsbet

Game Totals: MoSSBODS 13 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 16 points ahead of the TAB

MoSSBODS had fourwagers last week, two unders with the TAB that went 1 and 1, and two more unders with Sportsbet that went 2 and 0.

It ended then at 11 and 11 with the TAB, and at 9 and 5 with Sportsbet, for an overall 20 and 16 record.

Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 6 from 9 against the TAB and Sportsbet. That took it to 43 from 81 (53%) against the TAB, and 45 from 81 (56%) against Sportsbet. MoSHBODS landed 7 from 9 against the TAB and against Sportsbet, which took it to 42 from 81 (52%) against the TAB, and 43 from 81 (53%) against Sportsbet.

So far, it’s been a very solid year for Totals forecasting by the MoS twins.