2024 - Round 9 : Overs/Unders

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With the exception of the Hawks v Saints game, there’s no more than about a goal’s difference between the MoS twins’ and the bookmakers’ Totals forecasts this week. Overall, the twins' averages come in just under the bookmakers’.

In terms of this week’s highests and lowests, there is agreement again only about the high-and low-scoring teams:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS: Geelong v Port Adelaide

  • MoSHBODS: Gold Coast v North Melbourne

  • Bookmakers: Essendon v GWS

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: Hawthorn v St Kilda

  • Bookmakers: Fremantle v Sydney

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Gold Coast

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: North Melbourne

WAGERS

Investors have four wagers this week, all of them unders, and would have a fifth but for the forecast rain in the Dockers v Swans game. Combined, the four wagers represent just over 11% of the original Fund.

The estimated overlays for the games where we’ve wagers range from 4 to 11 points, and the wager sizes from 1.3% to 5% accordingly.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were shared amongst all the forecasters in Round 8:

  • Game Margins: TAB and Sportsbet tied

  • Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS

  • Away Team Scores: TAB and Sportsbet tied

  • Game Totals: MoSSBODS

TWO season-long titles switched hands this week as MoSHBODS surrendered the Away Team Score title to the TAB and Sportsbet surrendered the Game Totals title to MoSSBODS. The leads across all four metrics are now as follows:

Game Margins: Sportsbet 5 points ahead of the TAB and 67 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS 8 points ahead of MoSSBODS and 45 points ahead of the TAB

Away Team Scores: TAB 2 points ahead of Sportsbet and 15 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Game Totals: MoSSBODS 3 points ahead of Sportsbet and 4 points ahead of the TAB (and 8 points ahead of MoSHBODS)

MoSSBODS had six wagers last week, one overs with the TAB that was a loser, and five unders with Sportsbet that went 4 and 1.

It ended then at 10 and 10 with the TAB, and at 7 and 5 with Sportsbet, for an overall 17 and 15 record.

Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 6 from 9 against the TAB and Sportsbet. That took it to 37 from 72 (51%) against the TAB, and 39 from 72 (54%) against Sportsbet. MoSHBODS landed 6 from 9 against the TAB and 5 from 9 against Sportsbet, which took it to 35 from 72 (49%) against the TAB, and 36 from 72 (50%) against Sportsbet.