AFLW 2026 - Simulations After Round 11

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This year’s post Round 11 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

  1. North Melbourne: certain of being finalists; certain of Top 4; roughly 98% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Geelong: certain of being finalists; certain of Top 4; roughly 2% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Melbourne: certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Gold Coast: certain of being finalists; around 55% chances of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

  5. Carlton: certain of being finalists; around 30% chances of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

  6. Sydney and Western Bulldogs: certain of being finalists; around 5-10% chances of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

  7. Hawthorn: roughly 75% chances of being finalists; no chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

  8. Port Adelaide, Fremantle, and Adelaide: roughly 5-10% chances of being finalists; no chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

  9. Brisbane, West Coast, Richmond, GWS, Essendon, Collingwood, and St Kilda: no chance of being finalists; no chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below.

We have seven teams locked into the Top 8, and four with non-zero chances of taking 8th, and we have three teams locked into the Top 4, and four with non-zero chances of finishing 4th (the percentage gap to Melbourne is too large for any of the four to take 3rd place).

WINS AND LADDER FINISHES

In the table below we look at the average ladder finish for each team for a given number of home and away wins.

COMBINATIONS IN TOP X TEAMS

In the latest 1,000,000 simulation replicates there were:

  • 8,747 different Top 18s

  • 270 different Top 8s (and 4 different sets of 8 teams in them)

  • 28 different Top 4s (and 7 different sets of 4 teams in them)

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

The following plot shows how likely it is that any two consecutive ladder positions will be decided based on percentages.

So, our new estimates are:

  • MINOR PREMIER: There’s about a 2-in-3 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (up to 66% from 50%)

  • DOUBLE CHANCE: There’s about a 3-in-4 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (up to 75% from 72%)

  • MAKE FINALS: There’s about a 1-in-3 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (down to 34% from 42%)

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with fair prices shown in brackets):

  • North Melbourne (about $1.85)

  • Melbourne (about $5.50)

  • Geelong (about $6.80)

  • Carlton (about $16.50)

  • Western Bulldogs (about $36)

  • Gold Coast (about $64)

  • Hawthorn (about $140)

  • Sydney (about $140)

  • Adelaide (about $760)

  • Fremantle (about $3,500)

  • Port Adelaide (about $7,000)

In the plot below we record the team-versus-team results in the Finals simulations.

We can see, for example, that the largest proportion of North Melbourne Grand Final wins and losses are against Melbourne, and that Sydney and Hawthorn are both about 50% chances to bow out in an Elimination Final.

Lastly, let’s look at the Grand Final simulation results alone.

We can see that the most likely Grand Final outcome is a North Melbourne win over Melbourne (21.1%), and the second-most likely is a North Melbourne win over Geelong (14.6%).