WoSHBODS and the two bookmakers tipped all 9 winners this week giving WoSHBODS 72% accuracy for the season.

Its Margin MAE was 17.7 points per game, compared to 18.1 and 18.2 for the two bookmakers, and its Total MAE was 25.5 points per game, compared to 21.8 for the two bookmakers, the difference largely attributable to the number of heavily rain-affected games.

WoSHBODS’ season-long Margin MAE is now 19.3 points per game, compared to 18.4 and 18.5 for the two bookmakers.

Lastly, WoSHBODS’ LPS of +6.5 bits compares to +7.0 for the two bookmakers. Across the season WoSHBODS is on +23.2 bits to +27.8 for the bookmakers.

WAGERS

There was hope for a small profit right up until the final round, but the Blues’ 15 point win wasn’t even half enough and left the Line Fund in a small deficit.

The Head-to-Head Fund also lost money while a relatively quiet Overs/Unders Fund turned a small profit, leaving the Combined Portfolio down by just under 1c on the round and just over 4c on the season, that from a -3% ROI on a 1.4 turn.

TEAM DASHBOARD

Below is a table recording how the teams rank on various Team Dashboard metrics.

The metrics most rank correlated with ladder position are:

MoS Win Production Function: +0.99
Percentage of Quarters Won: +0.95
Own Goals per Game and Own Points per Game: +0.94
Own Scoring Shots per Game: +0.93
Q4 Performances: +0.85
Opponent Points per Game: +0.83
Q2 Performances: +0.83
Opponent Goals per Game: +0.83
Opponent Scoring Shots per Game: +0.81

The metric least rank correlated with ladder position is:

Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.47

Note that the teams in the Top 8 on the ladder are now the same as the teams in the Top 8 on the Win Production Function, and in the same order.

Next come the details of the Team Dashboard in two parts.

In the top part we can see that the Top 9 teams represent 73% of all wins.

We can also see that Geelong has scored an average of over 10 goals a game and conceded just 6 goals, while Melbourne and North Melbourne have scored about 9 but conceded only about 3-and-a-half (North Melbourne) to 4-and-a-half (Melbourne). St Kilda has scored just over 3-and-a-half goals per game and conceded just over 8-and-a-half.

Looking at the WIn Production Function:

Sydney, Richmond, Geelong, and Gold Coast have all won about 1 game more than expected, based on their scoring data
Brisbane has won almost 2 games fewer than expected, GWS 1.5 games, and Essendon just over 1 game.

In the bottom half we see that:

North Melbourne has won 34 (and drawn 1) of 44 quarters this season. Geelong is next with 32, then Melbourne with 30 wins and 2 draws.
Over the same time period, Collingwood have won only 10 quarters, and St Kilda only 11 and 1 draw, and Essendon only 13.
The teams that have outscored their opponents, on average, in every quarter are still Geelong, North Melbourne, and Melbourne.
Those that have been outscored by their opponents, on average, in every quarter are still Collingwood, Essendon, GWS, Richmond, St Kilda, and West Coast.
Western Bulldogs have conceded 37% of their points in Q3s, but only 16% in Q2s.
Collingwood have converted at 55% in Q1s but only 27% in Q2s
Hawthorn have converted at 59% in Q3s but only 39% in Q2s
North Melbourne have converted at 59% in Q2s but only 37% in Q1s
Carlton’s opponents have converted at 55% in Q3s but only 26% in Q4s
Collingwood’s opponents have converted at 65% in Q3s but only 44% in Q2s
Fremantle’s opponents have converted at 57% in Q1s but only 36% in Q2s
Hawthorn’s opponents have converted at 60% in Q1s but only 38% in Q2s
Western Bulldogs’ opponents have converted at 57% in Q3s but only 30% in Q2s