WoSHBODS is forecasting three home team and six away wins this week, differing in its choice of winner compared to the bookmakers only in the final game of the round where it has Fremantle narrowly defeating Sydney.

That game represents the largest absolute difference between WoSHBODS’ and the bookmakers’ margin forecasts at just under 16 points, although the difference in the GWS v Gold Coast game is almost as large. The average absolute difference between WoSHBODS’ and the bookmaker’s margin forecasts is 7.7 points per game, which is up considerably on last week’s 4.8 points per game.

The distribution of WoSHBODS expected margins is as follows:

Under 2 goals: 6 games
From 2 to under 4 goals: 2 games
Over 4 goals: 1 game

The bookmakers would have 3 games in each category..

The average expected absolute margin is 13.1 points per game according to WoSHBODS, and 20.5 points per game according to the bookmaker.

WAGERS

The table below documents the round’s wagers and records a lot more action this week.

Overall, Investors have a line market interest in eight games, and a head-to-head interest in all nine, with every bet on an underdog.

The head-to-head bets total just under 12% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and the line bets just under 17% of the Line Fund.

In total, then, just under 14% of the entire Combined Portfolio is at risk. A best possible set of results would lift the price of the Combined Portfolio by just over 22c.