2024 - Round 26 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE SATURDAY 7:15PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Giants by 10 points
UPDATE FRIDAY 7PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Hawthorn by 14 points
UPDATE THURSDAY 10PM
MoSHPlay’s preliminary views about the semi-finals
2024 - Round 26 : Overs/Unders
/The MoS twins have lower Totals forecasts than the bookmakers in the Giants v Lions clash, while MoSSBODS is higher and MoSHBODS lower than the bookmakers the Power v Hawks game.
Read More2024 - Round 26 : Straight Sets?
/There’s a very real possibility that we’'ll see straight sets exits for Port Adelaide and GWS this weekend, with the Power about 40% underdogs in their clash with the Hawks, and the Giants only just over 50% chances against the Lions.
That would go somewhat against history since, as you can see in the table at right, from 2000 to 2023 teams from 2nd are undefeated against teams from 7th, and teams from 4th have a 7-4 lead over teams from 5th.
Read More2024 - Team Ratings After Round 25
/In defeating the Dogs, the Hawks took #1 spot on both MoS Rating Systems this week.
The big movers were Geelong, up 3 into 4th on MoSSBODS and up 3 into 3rd on MoSHBODS, and Port Adelaide, down 3 into 7th on MoSSBODS and down 3 into 6th on MoSHBODS.
Carlton, despite playing Finals, looks at though it’ll finish the season in 10th or 11th on both Systems, while GWS, despite a Top 4 finish, find themselves ranked 11th on MoSSBODS and 8th on MoSHBODS.
On MoSSBODS, 2nd and 11th are now separated by only just under 7 Scoring Shots (which is about 25 points), and on MoSHBODS 3rd and 11th are separated by only just over 18 points.
Read More2024 - Round 25 Results - Situation Normal
/It was two wins and two losses for home teams this week, all of which were favourites. With no contrarianism at all that meant all nine Head-to-Head Tipsters registered two from four and allowed MoSHPlay_Marg to maintain its three tip lead over RSMP_Simple, now with only five games to play.
The four winners for the week were the teams from all the odd positions - 1st, 3rd, 5th, and 7th - which left the statistics for the eight ladder positions in Week 1 of Finals since 2000 as shown at right.
The all-Tipster average for the round obviously came in at 2 from 4, taking the season-long figure to 129.9 from 211 (62%).
MoSHPlay_Marg now has a three tip lead over RSMP_Simple, and looks very hard to catch with just nine games left in the season.
The all-Tipster average for the round came in at 7 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 127.9 from 207 (62%).
Read More2024 - Round 25 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE SATURDAY 6:45PM
MoSHPlay ends at Lions by 25 points.
UPDATE FRIDAY 7PM
MoSHPlay ends at Dogs by a goal
UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM
MoSHPlay ends at Power by 20 points and has some preliminary thoughts about the remainder of the round
UPDATE WEDNESDAY 6:45PM
Here are MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts on Thursday night’s game
2024 - Round 25 : Overs/Unders - Update
/As, no doubt, a number of you have already realised, I forgot about the bye week again this year and, as a result, assessed the weather for potential overs wagers against what was expected at the relevant venues a week ago.
Having reassessed them early on Sunday morning using more up to date forecasts, I have now added a further overs wager to the portfolio based on the following details.
Read More2024 - Round 25 : Overs/Unders
/The MoS twins have higher Totals forecasts than the bookmakers in all but the Sydney Derby this week and, as a result, have an average expected Total three points higher than they.
Read More2024 - Round 25 : Misplaced Optimism
/Unsurprisingly, all four home teams are favourites in the first week of the Finals, though to see one of them about a three-and-a-half goal favourite does maybe cause one eyebrow to twitch. In the three other games the expected margins are between about half-a-goal and a goal-and-a-half.
Read More2024 - Team Ratings After Round 24
/MoSSBODS kept its Top 1 and 3 as the Dogs and the Lions, but switched the Hawks into 2nd from 4th and moved the Power from 2nd to 4th. In contrast, MoSHBODS kept its Top 4 unchanged as Dogs, Hawks, Power, and then Lions.
Read More2024 - Round 24 Results - Better Than Almost as Good as a Profit
/Seven of the nine early-week favourites were successful in Round 24, but the best scorers amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters went one better, and were recorded by MoSHPlay_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg. Everyone else scored that 7 from 9 except Home Sweet Home, who scored just 5.
MoSHPlay_Marg now has a three tip lead over RSMP_Simple, and looks very hard to catch with just nine games left in the season.
The all-Tipster average for the round came in at 7 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 127.9 from 207 (62%).
Read More2024 - Round 24 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE SUNDAY 5:30PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Power by 4 points.
UPDATE SUNDAY 2:45PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Blues by 2 points.
UPDATE SUNDAY 11:45AM
MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 21 points.
UPDATE SATURDAY 7PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Lions by 30 points and Swans by 16 points.
UPDATE SATURDAY 1PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Cats by 51 points
UPDATE SATURDAY 12:15PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Hawksby 58 points (and has some new preliminary views about the Sunday games)
UPDATE FRIDAY 7PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Pies by 7 points.
UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM
MoSHPlay’s preliminary views on Round 24
2024 - Round 24 : Overs/Unders
/Between them, the MoS twins differ by no more than two points in their Totals forecasts this week. Similarly, the two bookmakers differ between themselves by no more than a single point. The big differences come when you compare a MoS twin to a bookmaker where you can find a few gaps larger than a goal, and one as large as two goals.
In all but two of the games the MoS twins have lower Total forecasts than the bookmakers and, on average overall, they’re between 1 and 3 points below the bookmakers.
Read More2024 - Round 24 : Turns Out There Are Rakes Everywhere
/Five of this week’s nine games are expected to be won by 14 points or fewer, and the other four by between about 20 and 50 points. For the former, the teams involved are separated by between 2 and 7 places on the ladder, and for the latter between 10 and 14 places on the ladder, except for the Lions v Dons game where the gap is 6 ladder spots but the expected margin is 6 goals.
The all-game average expected margin is 21.3 points per game, which is up by about four-and-a-half points per game on last week.
Read More2024 - Team Ratings After Round 23
/MoSSBODS kept its Top 4 unchanged this week as Dogs, Power, Lions, and Hawks, while MoSHBODS continued to tinker, ending with the same four teams but ordered Dogs, Lions, Power, and Hawks.
Altogether MoSSBODS reranked 12 teams and MoSHBODS 15 in a continuation of the extraordinary levels of churn we’ve seen this season, thanks to the ridiculously close nature of the competition. On MoSSBODS, nine of those 12 teams moved multiple spots, the biggest movers being Carlton up 4 into 6th, St Kilda and Melbourne up 3 into 11th and 12th, and Geelong and Fremantle down 3 into 8th and 10th.
On MoSHBODS, 11 of the 15 teams moved multiple spots, including Carlton up 5 into 6th, Melbourne up 4 into 11th, and Geelong, Fremantle, and Adelaide, down 3 into 8th, 10th, and 13th.
On MoSSBODS, 2nd and 13th are now separated by only 6 Scoring Shots (which is about 22 points), and on MoSHBODS 2nd and 13th are separated by only 20 points.
Read More2024 - Round 23 Results - Almost as Good as a Profit
/An above-average six of the nine early-week favourites were successful in Round 23, and the best scores amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters was exactly that and recorded by all but the MoS trio.
They recorded only only 5 from 9, which saw MoSHPlay_Marg’s lead over RSMP_Simple at the top of the Leaderboard cut to two tips. RSMP_Weighted is one tip further back, in third.
The all-Tipster average for the round came in at 5.7 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 120.9 from 198 (61%).
Read More2024 - Round 23 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE SUNDAY 4:15PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Blues by 8 points.
UPDATE SUNDAY 3PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Hawks by 41 points.
UPDATE SUNDAY 12:30PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by an even 50 points.
UPDATE SATURDAY 6:45PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Port by 17 points and Cats by 9 points.
UPDATE SATURDAY 1PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Suns by 20 points and Giants by 27 points (and has fresh preliminary views on the Sunday games)
UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM
MoSHPlay’s preliminary views on Round 23 games.
2024 - Round 23 : Overs/Unders
/The MoS twins are slightly more in agreement this week although they still differ by as much as 4 or 5 points in their Totals forecasts for a couple of games. MoSHBODS has the higher Total forecast of the pair in all but one game, and has an average expected Total two points per game higher than MoSSBODS.
The bookmakers, again, have even higher Totals expectations, and have come in a point per game higher than MoSHBODS overall.
Read More2024 - Round 23 : Avoiding the Rakes
/Seven of this week’s nine games are expected to be won by no more than about 2 goals, despite involving teams separated by as much as 13 ladder positions in the case of the Adelaide Derby, and by 9 or 10 spots in two other cases. The two remaining games both involve teams separated by exactly 10 ladder positions, but carry expected margins of around 6 to 7 goals.
The all-game average expected margin is 16.8 points per game, which is up by about tw-and-a-half points per game on last week.
Read More2024 - Team Ratings After Round 22
/With the Lions and Dogs both losing this week despite registering more scoring shots than their respective opponents, and the Swans winning despite registering fewer scoring shots than their opponents, the extent to which you’re likely to agree with the latest MoS Team Ratings is going to heavily depend on the extent to which you agree with analyses that show scoring shot conversion is largely, though not entirely, random.
Both MoS Systems, given their respective in silico philosophies, thought the Dogs did enough to retain top spot, albeit after a Rating decline, while MoSSBODS was happy to keep the Lions in 2nd, but MoSHBODS dropped them to 3rd in favour of Port Adelaide.
Altogether MoSSBODS reranked nine teams this week and MoSHBODS 13. On MoSSBODS, five of those nine teams moved multiple spots, with Hawthorn climbing four spots, and Geelong and Adelaide climbing two, and Carlton falling six spots, and Fremantle two. Five teams also moved multiple spots on MoSHBODS, with GWS climbing three spots, Geelong, Collingwood and Adelaide climbing two, and Carlton falling seven.
On MoSSBODS, 2nd and 15th are now separated by only 7.1 Scoring Shots (which is about 26 points), and on MoSHBODS 2nd and 15th are separated by only 25 points.
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