2024 - Round 12 Results - A New (False?) Dawn

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In was a bad week for favourites, with just two claiming victory, allowing the targetted Head-to-Head Tipster contrarians to close the gap on Bookie Knows Best, which finds itself now tied with ENS_Linear, MoSHPlay_Marg, and MoSSBODS_Marg at the top of the Leaderboard on 68.5 from 106 (65%), and just one tip ahead of the RSMP twins

The all-Tipster average for the round came in at exactly 3 from 7, which took the season-long figure to 66.6 from 106 (63%).

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2024 - Round 12 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 3:15pm SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Suns by 14 points.

UPDATE 12:45pm SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Dees by 14 points and has a new preliminary view on the final game of the round.

UPDATE 6:45pm SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Geelong by 32 points.

UPDATE 4pm SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at St KIlda by 4 points.

UPDATE 1:15pm SATURDAY

MoSHPlay has flipped to Crows by 0.3 points.

UPDATE 7pm THURSDAY

MoSHPlay’s views on the rest of Round 12.

UPDATE 6:45pm THURSDAY

MoSHPlay’s finishes at Port Adelaide by 5 points.

UPDATE 7:15pm WEDNESDAY

MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of tomorrow night’s game is a non-controversial Port Adelaide by a goal.

2024 - Team Ratings After Round 11

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There really is no complete hierarchy of team ratings emerging as we see 12 teams changing places again on MoSSBODS and 11 teams changing places on MoSHBODS.

This week, however, the moves were, on average, smaller, with the only multi-spot movers on both Systems being:

  • Brisbane Lions: down two places on both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS

  • GWS: up two places on MoSSBODS and three places on MoSHBODS

At the end of it all, both Systems have the same Top 4 of Sydney, Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, and Melbourne.

On both Systems, the Ratings remain compressed at the top. On MoSSBODS, 1st and 11th are separated by only 3.7 Scoring Shots (which is about 14 points), and on MoSHBODS, 1st and 11th are separated by only just over 16 points.

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2024 - Round 11 Results - smh

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Six early-week favourites bagged the four points this week, and one other bagged two, which defined the ceiling for scores this weekend. Bookie Knows Best, ENS_Linear, and the RSMP twins were the only Head-to-Head Tipsters recording that maximum, which left Bookie Knows Best in 1st place on the Leaderboard, one tip clear of ENS_Linear, and a further tip clear of the MoS family and the RSMP pair.

The all-Tipster average for the round came in at 5.8 from 9, which took the season-long figure to 63.6 from 99 (64%).

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2024 - Round 11 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 4PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay’s finishes at Crows by 26 points.

UPDATE 3PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay’s finishes at Dees by 25 points.

UPDATE 12:30PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay’s finishes at Lions by 9 points.

UPDATE 7PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay’s finishes at Essendon by 26 points.

UPDATE 4PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay’s finishes at Cats by 15 points.

UPDATE 1PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay’s finishes at Port Adelaide by 43 points and Carlton by 12 points.

UPDATE 7:30PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay’s finishes at Fremantle by 7 points (and has some new preliminary views on the Sunday games).

UPDATE 7:15PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay’s preliminary views on the remaining games in Round 11.

UPDATE 6:45PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at the Dogs by 4 points.

UPDATE 6:45PM WEDNESDAY

MoSHPlay’s preliminary view is the Dogs by 3 points.

2024 - Team Ratings After Round 10

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Yep - another week of huge levels of re-ranking without much change in the underlying ratings as 12 teams change places on MoSSBODS and 11 teams change places on MoSHBODS.

The multi-spot movers on both Systems were:

  • Western Bulldogs: up six places on both Systems

  • Brisbane Lions: up two places on MoSSBODS and four places on MoSHBODS

  • Melbourne: down two places on MoSSBODS and three places on MoSHBODS

  • Geelong: down three places on both Systems

  • GWS: down three places on MoSSBODS and four places on MoSHBODS

At the end of it all, MoSSBODS’ Top 3 is Sydney, Collingwood, and Western Bulldogs, and MoSHBODS’ is Sydney, Western Bulldogs, and Brisbane Lions.

On both Systems, the Ratings remain compressed at the top. On MoSSBODS, 1st and 11th are separated by only 4.5 Scoring Shots (which is about 16 points), and on MoSHBODS, 1st and 11th are separated by only just over 15 points.

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2024 - Round 11 : It's Complicated

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This round looks quite a bit like last week, with three games expected to be won by less than 2 goals, three more expected to be won by about 3 goals, and the remaining three expected to be won by between about 5 and 7 goals. The expected number of favourite wins is 6.4 from 9 and the average expected margin is 21.3 points per game.

Also, the average ladder places between opponents this week is sizeable again at 6.8 places per game. In five of the games the teams are separated on the ladder by 4 or fewer places, but we also have 2nd v 17th, 4th v 18th, and 1st v 11th.

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2024 - Round 10 Results - We Applaud the Trend

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Only five early-week favourites bagged the four points this week, but some contrarian tipping allowed scores as high as seven for Home Sweet Home, and sixes for the RSMP twins, Consult the Ladder, and MoSSBODS_Marg. The Leaderboard is still headed by Bookie Knows Best, who now maintains a one tip lead over ENS_Linear and all three of the MoS family.

The all-Tipster average for the round came in at 5.7 from 9, which took the season-long figure to 57.8 from 90 (64%).

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2024 - Round 10 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 5:30PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Dees by 31 points.


UPDATE 3PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Port Adelaide by 27 points.

UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Saints by 3 points and Lions by 44 points.

UPDATE 4:15PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Giants by 14 points (and also has some new views on the Sunday games with the further squad announcements).

UPDATE 7:15PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay’s preliminary views on the remaining games of the round.

UPDATE 6:45PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Cats by 7 points.

UPDATE 7PM WEDNESDAY

MoSHPlay’s preliminary view is the Cats by 5 points.

2024 - Team Ratings After Round 9

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It was another week of ranking turmoil, with 10 teams changing places on MoSSBODS (all but one of them in the top half) and 12 teams changing places on MoSHBODS.

There was only one multi-spot mover on MoSSBODS, however (Melbourne up 2 into 3rd), but four multi-spot movers on MoSHBODS, including Collingwood up 3 into 3rd and Geelong down 3 into 4th.

At the end of it all, MoSSBODS’ Top 3 is Collingwood, Sydney, and Melbourne, and MoSHBODS’ is Sydney, Melbourne, and Collingwood.

On both Systems, the Ratings remain compressed at the top. On MoSSBODS, 1st and 11th are separated by only 4 Scoring Shots (which is about 15 points), and on MoSHBODS, 1st and 10th are separated by only 15 points.

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2024 - Round 10 : Onwards

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This round looks nothing like the last few, with only three games expected to be won by less than 2 goals, two more expected to be won by between about 3 and 3-and-a-half goals, and the remaining four expected to be won by between about 4-and-a-half and 7-and-a-half goals. The expected number of favourite wins is 6.5 from 9 and the average expected margin is 22.6 points per game.

Also, the average ladder places between opponents this week is a sizeable 7.7, including 3rd v 18th and 4th v 16th. In no contest are the participants separated by fewer than 4 spots on the ladder, and only one game involves teams both from the Top 8: 1st v 7th.

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2024 - Round 9 Results - Tide Turner?

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Only four early-week favourites bagged the four points this week, and another snagged a draw, which kept accuracy levels generally low, the exception being MoSSBODS_Marg’s 6.5 from 8, which dragged it into a share of fourth on the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard. That Leaderboard is still headed by Bookie Knows Best, who maintains a one tip lead over ENS_Linear and MoSHPlay_Marg.

The all-Tipster average for the round came in at 4.8 from 9, which took the season-long figure to 52.1 from 81 (64%).

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2024 - Round 9 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 3:15PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Crows by a goal.

UPDATE 12:30PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Pies by 6 goals.

UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 16 points and Suns by 33 points.

UPDATE 4PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at the Giants by 7 points.

UPDATE 1:15PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at the Saints by a point.

UPDATE 7:15PM THURSDAY

Here are MoSHPlay’s preliminary views of the remaining games of the round.

UPDATE 6:45PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay’s finishes at Dees by 4 points.

UPDATE 9:30PM WEDNESDAY

MoSHPlay’s preliminary view is Dees by 1 point.

2024 - Team Ratings After Round 8

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Only two teams retained their positions on MoSSBODS this week, including the Roos in last, while on MoSHBODS things were much quieter with only nine teams moving. Ratings compression had quite a lot to do with the level of change.

The multi-spot movers on both were Sydney (up 4 on MoSSBODS and 2 on MoSHBODS), Carlton (down 2 on both), and GWS (down 4 on MoSSBODS and 2 on MoSHBODS).

At the end of it all, MoSSBODS’ Top 3 is Sydney, Collingwood, and Carlton, and MoSHBODS’ is Geelong, Sydney, and Melbourne.

On both Systems, the Ratings remain compressed at the top. On MoSSBODS, 1st and 11th are separated by only 4.2 Scoring Shots (which is about 15 points), and on MoSHBODS, 1st and 10th are separated by only just over 12 points.

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2024 - Round 9 : The Funds Have No Memory

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In another challenging week for forecasters, five of the nine matches are expected to be won by less than 2 goals, and two more by less than 4 goals, leaving only the two expected 7-goal blowouts as something approaching bankers. The expected number of favourite wins is only 5.1 from 9 and the average expected margin is just 18.2 points per game.

Also, the average ladder places between opponents this week is a tiny 4.3, aided by the fact that all of the teams currently in the Top 8 meet another from the Top 8.

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