2024 - Round 9 : The Funds Have No Memory

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In another challenging week for forecasters, five of the nine matches are expected to be won by less than 2 goals, and two more by less than 4 goals, leaving only the two expected 7-goal blowouts as something approaching bankers. The expected number of favourite wins is only 5.1 from 9 and the average expected margin is just 18.2 points per game.

Also, the average ladder places between opponents this week is a tiny 4.3, aided by the fact that all of the teams currently in the Top 8 meet another from the Top 8.

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2024 - Round 8 Results - Not Laughing Now

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Only five early-week favourites bagged the four points this week, but only ENS_Linear and MoSHPlay_Marg managed better than five and they, as a result, have moved into joint 2nd and now just one tip behind Bookie Knows Best.

Two other Tipsters, MoSSBODS_Marg and Consult the Ladder, scored only four, which levelled the all-Tipster average for the round at exactly 5 from 9. That took the season-long figure to 47.3 from 72 (66%).

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2024 - Round 8 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE SUNDAY 6:30PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Lions by 16 points.

UPDATE SUNDAY 12:15PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Fremantle by 6 points.


UPDATE SATURDAY 7:30PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Essendon by 10 points.

UPDATE SATURDAY 6:45PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Melbourne by 2 points.

UPDATE SATURDAY 4PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Saints by 5 goals.

UPDATE FRIDAY 7PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Blues by 8 points.

UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM

Here’s MoSHPlay’s preliminary views about the rest of the round

UPDATE THURSDAY 6:45PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Port Adelaide by 3 points

UPDATE WEDNESDAY 10:15PM

MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of our Thursday fare is Port Adelaide by 1 point.

2024 - Team Ratings After Round 7

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Although not reaching the same levels as last week, there was still quite a bit of movement on the MoS Team Rating System ladders this week, yet again heavily influenced by the compressed nature of those ratings. MoSSBODS reranked 12 teams, though only five by more than a single spot, and MoSHBODS reranked only eight, and just three by more than a single spot.

The multi-spot movers on both were GWS (up 3 on MoSSBODS and 2 on MoSHBODS), Sydney (up 2 on MoSSBODS and 3 on MoSHBODS), and Melbourne (down 2 on both).

At the end of it all the MoS twins still don’t agree about which team is 1st or 2nd, MoSSBODS having it as Blues and Cats, and MoSHBODS Cats and Blues.

On both Systems, the Ratings remain compressed at the top. On MoSSBODS, 1st and 11th are separated by only 4.2 Scoring Shots (which is about 15 points), and on MoSHBODS, 1st and 10th are separated by only 15 points.

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2024 - Round 7 Results - You Have to Laugh ...

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In an excellent round for early week favourites, they recorded an 8.5 from 9 performance, which saw Bookie Knows Best take a two tip lead on the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard. MoSHBODS_Marg was the only other Tipster to register the maximum possible score, and it now joins its MoSHPlay_Marg and ENS_Linear in joint 2nd.

The all-Tipster average for the round was 7.4 from 9, which took the season-long figure to 42.3 from 63 (67%).

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2024 - Round 7 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 3:15PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay ends at Swans by 2 goals.

UPDATE 12:15PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay ends at Suns by 5 goals.

UPDATE 7PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay ends at Dogs by 2 points.


UPDATE 3:45PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay ends at Cats by 4 points.


UPDATE 1:15PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay ends at Adelaide by 28 points.


UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay ends at Port Adelaide by 23 points.

UPDATE 10AM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of tonight’s game is Port Adelaide by 4 goals. Here, too, are its early thoughts on the other games given the squads named.

UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Giants by 5 points

UPDATE 2:45PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Pies by 15 points.

UPDATE 6:45PM WEDNESDAY

MoSHPlay’s finishes at Dees by 26 points as has some preliminary thoughts on tomorrow’s games.

UPDATE 7:15PM TUESDAY

MoSHPlay’s preliminary view is Dees by 25 points

2024 - Team Ratings After Round 6

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When ratings are compressed, one obvious possibility is dramatic changes in team rankings, and that is indeed what we’ve seen this week on both MoS Team Rating Systems. All but four teams moved places on MoSSBODS, 10 of them by more than a single spot, and all but five teams moved places on MoSHBODS, nine of them by more than a single spot.

Some of the most dramatic moves came at the top of the leaderboards, with Carlton climbing five spots to take 1st on MoSSBODS and climbing four spots to take 2nd on MoSHBODS, while Collingwood rose seven spots on MoSSBODS into 2nd, and four spots on MoSHBODS into 5th.

At the end of it all the MoS twins agree about which teams are in the Top 6 but about none of their exact ranking.

Ans, on both Systems, the Ratings remain quite compressed at the top. On MoSSBODS, 1st and 11th are separated by only 4.5 Scoring Shots (which is about 16 points), and on MoSHBODS, 1st and 10th are separated by only 16.5 points. Chances are that we’ll see more upheaval in the weeks to come.

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2024 - Round 6 Results - Mixed

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Early week favourites again only won 4 of the 8 games this week, which made for generally low Head-to-Head Tipster scores. Best were Control The Ladder, MoSHPlay_Marg, and ENS_Linear’s 5 from 8, and worst were the RSMP twins 3 from 8.

That ENS_Linear performance was enough to lift it into a share of 1st place with Bookie Knows Best, both of them one tip ahead of MoSHPlay_Marg.

The all-Tipster average for the round was 4.1 from 8, which took the season-long figure to 34.9 from 54 (65%).

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2024 - Round 6 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 3:30PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Hawks by 23 points

UPDATE 1PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Swans by 20 points

UPDATE 7:15PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Dockers by 30 points

UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Lions by 10 points

UPDATE 1PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Pies by 10 points

UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Crows by 13 points

UPDATE 7:15PM THURSDAY

Here are MoSHPlay’s preliminary views on the remaining games in the round.

UPDATE 6:45PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay has switched to the Dogs by 1 point.


UPDATE 7:15PM WEDNESDAY

MoSHPlay currently has it as the Saints by half a point …

2024 - Round 6 : More Surgical

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The last of the eight-game rounds this week … until Round 12. Five of the contests are currently expected to be decided by roughly two goals or less, two more are expected to be decided by between about 15 and 20 points, leaving only the eighth as an apparently genuine candidate for blowout. That could, again this week, well make for a number of upsets, with the expected number of favourite wins just 5.1 from 8 and the average expected margin just 13.5 points per game.

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2024 - Team Ratings After Round 5

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At the end of Round 5, MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS have the same teams in their Top 5s, but in different orders. Both have GWS in 1st, but MoSSBODS has Port Adelaide in 2nd and Brisbane Lions in 3rd while MoSHBODS has Brisbane Lions in 2nd and Geelong in 3rd. It puts Port Adelaide only in 5th.

On both Systems, still, the Ratings remain quite compressed at the top. On MoSSBODS, 1st and 12th are separated by only 4.1 Scoring Shots (which is about 13 points), and on MoSHBODS, 1st and 12th are separated by only 14.1 points.

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2024 - Round 5 Results - Steady

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Early week favourites fared far less well this week, with only half of them winning in a round that saw three games decided by 3 points or loss.

Most Head-to-Head Tipsters, having again mostly or entirely avoided contrarianism, registered just four from eight, leaving the ordering on the Leaderboard unchanged. The all-Tipster average for the round was 4.1 from 8 - bumped up slightly by Home Sweet Home’s 5 from 8 - which took the season-long figure to 30.8 from 46 (67%).

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2024 - Round 5 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 3:15PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay has finished at Tigers by 15 points.

UPDATE 12:15PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay has finished at Cats by 42 points.

UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay has finished at Suns by 17 points and Power by 22 points.

UPDATE 4PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay has finished at Blues by 24 points.


UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay has finished at Dogs by 17 points.

UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay’s is sticking with Melbourne by 18 points and now has some preliminary views about the remaining games in the round..


UPDATE 9:30PM WEDNESDAY

MoSHPlay’s preliminary thinking is Melbourne by 3 goals.

2024 - Team Ratings After Round 4

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At the end of Round 4, MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS have the same teams in their Top 5s, but now only have Port Adelaide and GWS swapped across their two orderings.

On both Systems, however, the Ratings remain quite compressed at the top. On MoSSBODS, 1st and 12th are separated by only 4.3 Scoring Shots (which is about 13 points), and on MoSHBODS, 1st and 11th are separated by only 14.8 points.

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