We return to eight-game rounds this week, with seven of the contests currently expected to be decided by between two and four goals, and the eighth by about 9 goals. That could well make for a number of upsets - in fact, the expected number of favourite wins is only 5.8 from 8. The average expected margin is 23.1 points per game and home teams are favourites in all but the last game of the round.
Read MoreEarly week favourites fared fantastically this week, with all nine taking the chocolates, albeit by 10 points or fewer in four of the games. Most Head-to-Head Tipsters, therefore, having mostly or entirely avoided contrarianism, registered eight or nine from nine, the obvious exception being Home Sweet Home. Bookie Knows Best remains atop the Leaderboard, now just one ahead of ENS_Linear and the RSMP twins, and two ahead of the MoS trio.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 7.8 from 9, which took the season-long figure to 26.7 from 38 (70%).
Read MoreThere’s probably been enough football played now by each of the teams that it’s meaningful to look at how the various MoS Team Rating Systems rate and rank them.
MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS have the same teams in their Top 5s, but none of them in the same position. MoSSBODS has Melbourne 1st, Port Adelaide 2nd, and GWS 3rd, while MoSHBODS has GWS 1st, Melbourne 2nd, and Port Adelaide 3rd.
On both Systems, however, the Ratings are quite compressed at the top. On MoSSBODS, 1st and 13th are separated by only 4.3 Scoring Shots (which is about 13 points), and on MoSHBODS, 1st and 11th are separated by only 14.7 points.
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Pies by 16 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at St Kilda by 1 point.
MoSHPlay finishes at GWS by 22 points.
MoSHPlay is sticking with the Dogs, but only by 2 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Blues by 5 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Swans by 46 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Port Adelaide by 24 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Lions by 31 points.
Here are MoSHPlay’s preliminary views on the rest of the round (and slightly amended view on tonight’s game, which is now Dees by 7 points).
MoSHPlay ends at Dees by 6 points
MoSHPlay’s initial view is Dees by 5 points
Overall, the MoS twins are expecting lower totals this weekend than are the bookmakers, and by quite some margin in a number of games.
Read MoreWe return to a nine-game fixture this week, with four contests currently expected to be decided by less than 3 goals, three more by less than 4 goals (give or take half a point), and the other two by about 6 goals and 9 goals. The average expected margin is 19.3 points per game and home teams are favourites in only three of the contests.
Read MoreFour early-week favourites won this week, and four lost, which resulted in every Head-to-Head Tipster registering four from eight, leaving Bookie Knows Best on top of the Leaderboard, still just one ahead of six other Tipsters.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 4 from 8, which took the season-long figure to 18.8 from 29 (65%).
Read MoreCats, but only by 5 points, is MoSHPlay’s initial thinking
Updated MoSHPlay thoughts on the Sunday games
MoSHPlay finishes at Saints by 3 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Fremantle by 5 points.
Here are MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts on all but the Monday game.
MoSHPlay’s ends at Lions by 20 points
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view is Lions by 16 points
Overall, the MoS twins are expecting higher totals this weekend than are the bookmakers, but they do have a mixture of higher and lower figures for individual games.
Read MoreFour Round 3 contests are currently expected to be decided by less than 3 goals, two more by less than 4 goals, and two more by about 6 to 7-and-a-half goals. The average expected margin is about 22.5 points per game. Home teams are favourites in half of the contests.
Read MoreThe bookmakers, on the whole, did an excellent job this week, as 6 of the 8 early-week favourites were victorious, which saw Bookie Knows Best claim top spot on the Head-to-Head Tipsters Leaderboard, though just one ahead of six other Tipsters.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 5.6 from 8, which took the season-long figure to 14.8 from 21 (70%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Giants by 42 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Port Adelaide by 9 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 8 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Swans by 30 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Dockers by 11 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Crows by 23 points.
Here are MoSHPlay’s initial thoughts on the remaining games, conditional on final squads being announced. Not straying far from its source, MoSHBODS, except in the Swans’ game.
MoSHPlay ends at Pies by 13 points
MoSHPlay’s preliminary forecast is Pies by 11 points
It’s another week where all four forecasters have roughly the same estimate for the all-game average Total, but where there are some sizeable differences at the level of individual games.
Read MoreFive Round 2 contests are currently expected to be decided by less than 2-and-a-half goals, two more by less than 4-and-a-half goals, and the eighth (which is all we have this week in the Season of Death By 100 Bye Rounds) by about 7-and-a-half goals. The average expected margin is just under 20 points per game.
Home teams are favourites in only three of the eight contests, which is probably bad news for the ladder-leading Home Sweet Home.
Read MoreI can’t yet exactly say why, but I just have this feeling that there’s something different about the 2024 season.
If nothing else, one of the definitely unusual features is the number of home team winners, of which there were 8 this week, one more than the number of early-week favourites.
In fact, all but Consult The Ladder and MoSHPlay_Marg recorded scores of 7 or 8 from 9, which left the all-Tipster average at 6.9 from 9.
Home Sweet Home currently heads the Leaderboard on 11 from 13 (85%) ahead of Bookie Knows Best, MoSHBODS_Marg, and MoSSBODS_Marg on 10 from 13 (77%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay has flipped and gone the Lions by 1 point
It’s Port by 46 points, accoriding to MoSHPlay
MoSHPlay ends with it as Dees by 13 pointsU
MoSHPlay ends with it as Suns by 9 points
MoSHPlay ends with at Cats by 2 goals
MoSHPlay ends with the Giants by 53 points (assuming Haynes and Shiels are the subs)
MoSHPlay ends at the underdog Hawks by 10 points
MoSHPlay ends at the Pies by 14 points (subject to confirmation that the subs are Macrae and Wicks)
Here’s MoSHPlay’s current thinking on the remaining games in the round, pending team finalisations.
MoSHPlay finishes by forecasting that the Blues will win by 7 points (subject to Mansell being conformed as the sub for the Tigers)
MoSHPlay is a little less confident about the home team’s chance in the Thursday night game (although this might change when the final teams are named) and currently has the Blues winning by only 8 points
All four forecasters have roughly the same estimate for the nine-game average Total, but there are some sizeable differences at the level of individual games.
Read MoreSix Round 1 contests are currently expected to be decided by less than 3 goals, and a seventh by less than 20 points, leaving only two that are expected to be won by 7 goals or more. The average expected margin is just 17.4 points per game.
Home teams are favourites in eight of the nine contests, with Fremantle the only exception and that, of course, is great news for Home Sweet Home, who already finds himself in equal top spot on the Head-to-Head Tipping Leaderboard.
Read MoreThe bookmakers did a reasonable job of tipping winners this week, missing out only in the Lions v Blues game and even there only by a point.
Home Sweet Home and the MoS trio shared top honours with BKB on Head-to-Head Tipping, whilst Consult The Ladder finished with a startling 0 from 4.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 2.3 from 4, which took the all-season accuracy to just over 58%.
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Giants by 15 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Suns by 14 points.
Here are MoSHPlay’s early thoughts on the remaining games of the round (assuming that the average quality of the final 23s will be the same as the average quality of the currently named squads including the Interchanges but not the Emergencies).
MoSHPlay has ended at Swans by 9 points
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