2023 - Round 26 : Everyone Agrees

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Recent Finals history shows that home teams in week 1 of the Finals tend to fare well, especially in the Qualifying Finals, and less so in the 1st Elimination Final.

That is largely reflected in the bookmaker prices this week, which see the Pies (and time of wagering) slight favourites, the Blues and Lions as moderate favourites, and the Saints as narrow underdogs.

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2023 - Team Ratings After Round 25

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After the Elimination and Qualifying Finals, the MoS twins now agree that Brisbane Lions should be ranked 1st, and GWS 2nd. Thereafter, MoSSBODS has it as Adelaide, Melbourne, Port Adelaide, and Sydney, while MoSHBODS has it as Melbourne, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, and Sydney.

Both of them remain resolutely unimpressed with Collingwood, who MoSSBODS ranks 9th and MoSHBODS 7th.

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2023 - Round 25 Results - All Your Favourites

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As is often the case, favouritism weighs heavily in Finals, and so it was that Bookie Knows Best snared 4 from 4 this week, a feat matched only by RSMP twins. That allowed RSMP_Simple to join MoSHBODS_Marg at the top of the Leaderboard on 145 from 211 (69%). MoSHPlay_Marg now sits in 3rd place, one tip behind.

Those results left the minor premiers with the best week 1 record of 75%, just ahead of 2nd place’s 71% record. Teams from 5th position still have the worst record, although that is now nearing 60%.

Overall the teams finishing higher on the ladder than their opponents now have a 64 and 32 or 2-in-3 winning record.

The all-Tipster average for the round was 3 from 4, which took the all-season figure to 139.1 from 211 (66%).

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2023 - Team Ratings After Round 24

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We finish the home-and-away season with MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS agreeing on the Top 6 teams, but with the Top 4 in very different orders.

  • Adelaide, with only a relatively modest +1 Scoring Shot increase in its Combined Rating, moved back into top spot on MoSSBODS. They also moved up on MoSHBODS, but only into 4th.

  • Brisbane Lions gained Rating on both Systems to finish in 2nd on MoSSBODS and 3rd on MoSHBODS

  • Melbourne also gained Rating on both Systems to finish in 3rd on MoSSBODS and 2nd on MoSHBODS

  • GWS also gained Rating on both Systems, but in particular on MoSHBODS, to finish in 4th on MoSSBODS and 1st on MoSHBODS

  • Port Adelaide lost Rating on both Systems to finish in 5th on both Systems

  • Carlton lost Rating on both Systems to finish in 6th on both Systems

Both of those 1st place rankings seem a little curious, but the underlying story is, I think, that there are no standout teams this season, so a week or two of unexpectedly strong performances can catapult a team well up the rankings. To illustrate that point, note that the gap between Adelaide and Carlton on MoSSBODS is only 1.7 Scoring Shots (or about 6 points at average conversion rates), and between Adelaide and Carlton on MoSHBODS is only 5.1 points.

By way of comparison, the gaps between 1st and 6th at the end of the 2022 home and away season were 6.4 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS, and 25.1 points on MoSHBODS, which are about 4 to 5 times the size.

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2023 - Round 24 Results - That'll Do

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If ever there was a week to take notice of each team’s ladder position, this was it, as just 4 of the 9 early-week favourites were successful, but 7 of the 9 teams higher on the competition ladder took the four points.

At the top of the Leaderboard, however, MoSHBODS_Marg managed 4 from 9 to now lead MoSHPlay_Marg, MoSSBODS_Marg and RSMP_Simple by two tips.

The all-Tipster average for the round was 4.6 from 9, which took the all-season figure to 136.1 from 207 (66%).

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2023 - Round 24 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 5:30PM SUNDAY

Blues by 1 point, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 2:30PM SUNDAY

Swans by 4 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 12PM SUNDAY

Power by 26 points, according to MoSHPlay


UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

It’s the Dogs by 7 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 3:45PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Lions by 24 points

UPDATE 1:15PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Hawks by 11 and Gold Coast by 29 for the Super Saturday fixtures

UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Pies by 27 points

UPDATE 7:15PM THURSDAY

Here are MoSHPlay’s initial thoughts about the final home and away round

2023 - Round 24 : Final Before Finals

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Seven Round 24 contests involve teams that are separated by no more than 4 spots on the competion ladder and the other two contests involve teams that are separated by nine spots on the competition ladder. We have:

  • Two games where the teams are separated by two ladder positions and where the lines are 12.5 and 13.5 points

  • Three games where the teams are separated by three ladder positions and where the lines range between 1.5 and 15.5 points

  • Two games where the teams are separated by four ladder positions and where the lines are 30.5 and 34.5 points

  • Two games where the teams are separated by nine ladder positions and where the lines are 31.5 and 40.5 points

On average, the opposing teams are separated by 4.3 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.9.

The relatively small average ladder gap between teams has not translated into generally lower handicaps this week, the overall average coming in at 21.5 points per game, which is up by about 2 points on the Round 23 average. It leaves the all-Season average at its final value of 18.4 points per game, which is the highest average since 2018.

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2023 - Team Ratings After Round 23

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Adelaide’s triumph was relatively short lived on both Systems, and they were amongst some big movers this week, once again highlighting the close nature of this year’s competition, and the lack of any real standout teams.

On MoSSBODS

  • Geelong (down 5 to 13th)

  • Western Bulldogs (down 4 to 10th)

  • Adelaide (down 3 to 5th)

  • Gold Coast (down 2 to 12th)

  • GWS (up 6 to 6th)

  • St Kilda (up 5 to 9th)

On MoSHBODS

  • Adelaide (down 4 to 5th)

  • Western Bulldogs (down 4 to 11th)

  • Geelong (down 4 to 10th)

  • Gold Coast (down 3 to 13th)

  • GWS (up 5 to 6th)

  • St Kilda (up 4 to 9th)

  • Brisbane Lions (up 3 to 2nd)

  • Sydney (up 2 to 7th)

That’s left us with a Top 3 on MoSSBODS of Port Adelaide, Melbourne, and Carlton, and a Top 3 on MoSHBODS of Carlton, Brisbane Lions, and Port Adelaide.

In total, 11 teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and 9 teams changed places on MoSHBODS.

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2023 - Round 23 Results - Taking the Good With the Bad

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Only five early week favourites won this week, which meant that MoSHPlay_Marg’s and Consult The Ladder’s 6 from 9 was high score for the round, and Home Sweet Home’s 4 from 9 was low score.

MoSHBODS_Marg managed 5 from 9 and still retains a two tip lead over MoSSBODS_Marg and a three tip lead over ENS_Linear, RSMP_Simple and now MoSHPlay_Marg.

The all-Tipster average for the round was 5.1 from 9, which took the all-season figure to 131.6 from 198 (66%).

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2023 - Round 23 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE SUNDAY 2:45PM

MoSHPlay ends at Melbourne by 22 points

UPDATE SATURDAY 7PM

MoSHPlay ends at Geelong by 4 points and Adelaide by 20 points

UPDATE SATURDAY 4:30PM

MoSHPlay ends at Giants by 28 points

UPDATE SATURDAY 1:30PM

MoSHPlay ends at Blues by less than a point

UPDATE SATURDAY 1:15PM

MoSHPlay ends at Tigers by 40 points

UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM

Here are MoSHPlay’s initial thoughts about Round 23

2023 - Round 23 : Penultimate

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Five Round 23 contests involve teams that are separated by no more than 5 spots on the competion ladder and the other four contests involve teams that are separated by at least 10 spots on the competition ladder. We have:

  • Two games where the teams are separated by one ladder position and where the lines are 6.5 and 18.5 points

  • Three games where the teams are separated by four or five ladder positions and where the lines range between 8.5 to 24.5 points

  • Two games where the teams are separated by 10 ladder positions and where the lines are 8.5 and 62.5 points

  • Two games where the teams are separated by 11 or 12 ladder positions and where the lines are 9.5 and 26.5 points

On average, the opposing teams are separated by 6.6 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.7.

The relatively large average ladder gap between teams has translated into generally higher handicaps this week, the overall average coming in at 19.4 points per game, which is up by about 4-and-a-half points on the Round 22 average, but down by almost seven points on the all-time average for Round 23s. It leaves the all-Season average at 18.2 points per game.

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2023 - Team Ratings After Round 22

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Such is the ridiculously close nature of MoS Team Ratings at this stage of the season that we see multiple teams moving by three or more spots on both Systems.

On MoSSBODS, only the bottom 3 teams were unmoved, while on MoSHBODS only 2nd and the bottom 3 teams were unmoved.

The big movers were:

On MoSSBODS

  • Port Adelaide (up 3 to 1st)

  • Adelaide (up 5 to 2nd)

  • Melbourne (up 2 to 3rd)

  • Collingwood (up 2 to 7th)

  • Fremantle (up 2 to 11th)

  • Brisbane Lions (down 4 to 5th)

  • Western Bulldogs (down 3 to 6th)

  • Richmond (down 3 to 15th)

  • Carlton (down 2 to 4th)

  • Geelong (down 2 to 8th)

  • GWS (down 2 to 12th)

On MoSHBODS

  • Adelaide (up 5 to 1st)

  • Port Adelaide (up 4 to 2nd)

  • Fremantle (up 3 to 12th)

  • Brisbane Lions (down 4 to 5th)

  • Western Bulldogs (down 4 to 7th)

  • Richmond (down 3 to 15th)

  • Geelong (down 2 to 6th)

That’s left us with a Top 3 on MoSSBODS of Port Adelaide, Adelaide, and Melbourne, and a Top 3 on MoSHBODS of Adelaide, Carlton, and Port Adelaide.

Whilst I can make cases for Carlton and Port Adelaide, seeing Adelaide in 2nd on MoSSBODS and 1st on MoSHBODS after a loss (albeit a much smaller than expected one and after registering more scoring shots) did have me checking my inputs.

The larger point, however, is that only 2.3 Scoring Shots separate 1st from 8th on MoSSBODS, and just 4.2 Points separate 1st from 8th on MoSHBODS. That is truly extraordinary.

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2023 - Round 22 Results - Nobody Knows

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Early-week favourites fared fairly well this week, which helped the Head-to-Head Tipsters record a 6.7 from 9 aggregate performance. Best was Consult The Ladders’ 8 from 9, and worst the 6 from 9 scores of the MoS trio and ENS_Linear.

MoSHBODS_Marg still retains a two tip lead over MoSSBODS_Marg , however, and a three tip lead over ENS_Linear and, now, RSMP_Simple.

The all-Tipster all-season figure is now 126.4 from 189 (67%).

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