2022 - Round 21 : Keys to the Finals Door

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This week includes a remarkable seven games where the teams are separated on the competition ladder by between 1 and 4 places, one where they are separated by exactly 7 places, and one where they are separated by exactly 14 places.

That’s translated into a set of expected margins that includes seven sized at about two-and-a-half goals or less, and two sized at about six-and-a-half or seven-and-a-half goals.

The overall average expected margin is 16.3 points per game, which is well below average by general Round 21 standards, and the lowest in the history of the data shown here. It drops the all-season average expected margin to just under 18.0 points per game.

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2022 - Team Ratings After Round 20

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Geelong, despite losing Rating Points on MoSSBODS for the second week running and essential remaining static on MoSHBODS, retained top spot on both Systems this week, while Melbourne leap-frogged Sydney to take second.

In total, there were 12 moves on MoSSBODS and the same number on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing about the ranking of the 1st to 6th, 8th, and 13th through 18th teams. There is now only one team where they differ in their rankings by more than two places: Carlton.

Eleven teams are rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and twelve, with Essendon just making the cut, on MoSHBODS,

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2022 - Round 20 Results - Almost Perfect

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Seven early-week favourites again won this week, which set the floor for the Head-to-Head Tipster performances as five Tipsters recorded seven correct tips, and four recorded eight correct tips. Two of those scoring eight from nine were the team-based MoS models, which left MoSHBODS_Marg one tip clear at the top of the Leaderboard and now on 128.5 from 171 (75%), ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg on 127.5 (75%), and then Bookie Knows Best and the RSMP twins, all now eight tips behind, on 120.5 (71%). MoSHPlay_Marg is a further tip back on 119.5 (70%).

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2022 - Round 20 : Getting Warmer

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This week includes four games where the teams are separated on the competition ladder by between 3 and 5 places, and five where they are separated by exactly 7 places or 9 places.

That’s translated into a set of expected margins that includes:

  • 4 games under about a goal

  • 2 games from about two to three goals

  • 3 games from about five to six goals.

The overall average expected margin is 17.2 points per game, which is well below average by general Round 20 standards, and the lowest since 2017. It keeps the all-season average expected margin at about 18.0 points per game.

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2022 - Team Ratings After Round 19

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Geelong, despite losing Rating Points on MoSSBODS and barely gaining them on MoSHBODS, retained top spot on both Systems this week, while Sydney held onto second and Melbourne third.

In total there were seven moves on MoSSBODS and just two on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing about the ranking of only the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 12th through 18th teams. There are only two teams, however, where they differ in their rankings by more than two places: Carlton and Richmond.

Eleven teams are rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and on MoSHBODS,.

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2022 - Round 19 Results - Ridiculously Precise

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Seven early-week favourites won this week, and an eighth drew, and the extremely low levels of contrarian head-to-head tipping meant that virtually nothing happened on the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard save for Home Sweet Home falling another two tips adrift of the pack.

MoSHBODS_Marg remains one tip clear at the top of the Leaderboard, now on 120.5 from 162 (74%), ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg on 119.5 (74%), and Bookie Knows Best and the RSMP twins, still seven tips behind, on 113.5 (70%). MoSHPlay_Marg is a further tip back on 112.5 (69%).

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2022 - Round 19 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 4PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay ends at Saints by 4 goals.


UPDATE 2:45PM SUNDAY

Collingwood by the barest of margins, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 12:30PM SUNDAY

Blues by 28 points, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

Lions by 25 points, and Dees by 9 points, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 3:45PM SATURDAY

Cats by just 1 point, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 1PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay’s final thoughts on the first Saturday games, and some small updates on the Sunday games.

UPDATE 7:30PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay is the extreme Margin Predictor in four games (and the contrarian Head-to-Head Tipster of Essendon in one of those)

2022 - Round 19 : Much Quieter

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This week includes seven games where the teams are separated on the competition ladder by between 7 and 10 places, and just two where they’re separated by 4 or 5 places.

That’s not translated into a slew of large expected margins, though, with 5 games expected to be won by under 16 points, and the remaining 4 games by under 31 points.

The overall average expected margin is 15.9 points per game, which is well below average by general Round 19 standards, but slightly higher than last year’s and 2019’s 14.1 points per game. It lowers the all-season average expected margin to 18.0 points per game, which is looking like it’ll be the highest home-and-away season average since 2018.

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2022 - Team Ratings After Round 18

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Geelong retained top spot on both Systems this week, while Sydney took second away from Melbourne.

Further down the ladder there were nine more moves on MoSSBODS and eight more on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing about the ranking of only the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 9th. 11th, and 14th through 18th. There are only two teams, however, where they differ in their rankings by more than two places: Carlton and Richmond.

Eleven teams are rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and on MoSHBODS,.

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2022 - Round 18 Results - Another Good 'un

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In something of a recurring theme, six opening-market favourites won yet again this week. The only Head-to-Head Tipsters doing better than this par score were the MoS trio, with MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSHPlay_Marg both bagging 7 from 9, and MoSSBODS_Marg bagging 8 from 9.

That left MoSHBODS_Marg one tip clear at the top of the Leaderboard, now on 113 from 153 (74%), ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg on 112 from 153 (73%), and Bookie Knows Best and the RSMP twins, now seven tips behind, on 106 from 153 (69%). MoSHPlay_Marg is a further tip back on 105 from 153 (69%), which means that player knowledge has resulted in 8 fewer correct tips.

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2022 - Round 18 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 2:45PM SUNDAY

Melbourne by just 3 points, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 12:30PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay has it as Hawthorn by 32 points.

UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay has it as Cats by 12 and Dockers by 4 points.

UPDATE 1PM SATURDAY

Pies by 3 and Lions by 2, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay has the Dogs by 2 goals now.

UPDATE 7:30PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay is the extreme Margin Predictor in four games.

2022 - Round 18 : A Lot Going On

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This week we have:

  • 1 game where the teams are immediately adjacent on the ladder

  • 4 games where they're between 3 and 5 places apart

  • 4 games where they're 9 or 10 places apart

That’s translated into five games that the TAB Bookmaker expects to have a single digit margin, two more with expected margins around two-and-a-half goals, one with an expected margin around 6.5 goals, and a final one with an expected margin around nine-and-a-half goals,

The overall average expected margin is 15.5 points per game, which is well below average by general Round 18 standards, but slightly higher than last year’s 15.4 points per game. It lowers the all-season average expected margin to 18.1 points per game.

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2022 - Team Ratings After Round 17

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Geelong’s win over Melbourne was enough to see them snag top spot from the Dees on both MoS Rating Systems this week, and Sydney’s win over Western Bulldogs was enough to convince MoSHBODS to join MoSSBODS in ratings them third.

Overall, 13 teams moved places on MoSSBODS this week, including all but the teams in 3rd, and 15th to 18th. The same number moved places on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing about the ranking of only the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 11th, 17th and 18th teams. There are only three teams, however, where they differ in their rankings by more than two places: Carlton, Collingwood, and Richmond.

Eleven teams are now rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and on MoSHBODS,.

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2022 - Round 17 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE SUNDAY 4PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Carlton by 27 points.

UPDATE SUNDAY 2:30PM

Hawks by 2 points, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE SUNDAY 12:45PM

Lions by 21 now, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE SATURDAY 7PM

Dockers by 2 and Port by 16, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE SATURDAY 1:15PM

Some MoSHPlay updates to reflect the latest team lists on the AFL website.

UPDATE SATURDAY 1PM

Pies by 9 goals, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE FRIDAY 7PM

Swans by 11 points, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM

MoSHPlay is currently the extreme predictor in only two games.

UPDATE THURSDAY 6:45PM

Cats by two whiskers now, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE THURSDAY 10:30AM

It’s the Cats by a whisker, according to MoSHPlay.