2022 - Round 17 : Seven Left

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Not that the quality of a game is always about the ladder-proximity of the opponents, but this week we have:

  • 3 games where the teams are immediately adjacent on the ladder

  • 1 game where they're 2 places apart

  • 1 game where they're 4 places apart

  • 1 game where they're 5 places apart

  • 2 games where they're 12 places apart

  • 1 game where they're 13 places apart

That’s a mixed bag, and the TAB Bookmaker expected margins reflect that, with five of them single-digit, two of them about 2-and-a-half goals, one of them 5-and-a-half goals, and the last of them about 9-and-a-half goals.

The overall average expected margin is 17.1 points per game, which is slightly below average by general Round 17 standards, but the highest since 2019. It lowers the all-season average expected margin to 18.3 points per game.

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2022 - Team Ratings After Round 16

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Melbourne, in the end, did just enough in their 29-points and 9 scoring shots victory over Adelaide to nudge their ratings a little higher and retain top spot on both MoS Systems this week.

Geelong now sits directly behind them on both Systems, with Sydney and the Western Bulldogs filling 3rd and 4th in a different order. Sydney, by virtue of recording six more scoring shots than Essendon, actually gained rating points on MoSSBODS this week despite losing on the scoreboard, while on MoSHBODS, which includes an element of scoring shot conversion, the Swans suffered a slight decline.

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2022 - Round 16 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 4:45PM SUNDAY

Dockers by 14 is MoSHPlay’s final bid.

UPDATE 2:45PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at GIANTS by 14 points (sorry to shout)

UPDATE 1:30PM SUNDAY

Tigers by a tick over 8 goals, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay has made some small adjustments to its forecasts for tonight’s games.

UPDATE 1:15PM SATURDAY

Swans by 9, according to MoSHPlay (and there’s also some updates to the forecasts for tomorrow’s games).

UPDATE 7:15PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay is the most extreme Margin Predictor in three games for now.

UPDATE 6:45PM THURSDAY

Just the smallest of tweaks from MoSHPlay, and we finish at Lions by 11 points.

UPDATE 7PM WEDNESDAY

Lions by 2 goals, according to MoSHPlay.

2022 - Round 16 : By How Much?

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Whereas last weekend was all about contests between teams quite proximate on the ladder, this week we have:

  • 1 game where the teams are one spot apart on the ladder (14 v 15)

  • 2 more games where the teams are four or five spots apart on the ladder (5 v 10, and 11 v 7)

  • 3 more games where the teams are seven or eight spots apart on the ladder (1 v 8, 9 v 17, and 4 v 12)

  • 3 more games where the teams are 10 or more spots apart on the ladder (16 v 6, 13 v 1, and 2 v 18)

That’s made for much higher TAB Bookmaker expected margins this week, including 3 of five goals or more. Only one game is expected to finish with a single-digit margin.

The overall average expected margin is 23,3 points per game, which is roughly average by general Round 16 standards, but nonetheless the highest since 2018. It raises the all-season average expected margin to 18.4 points per game.

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2022 - Team Ratings After Round 15

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We have new number ones on both Systems for the second time in two weeks, as Melbourne’s emphatic defeat of Brisbane Lions has seen them retake that mantle.

Overall, eight teams moved places on MoSSBODS this week, and 12 did the same on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing only about the ranking of the 1st, 4th, 8th through 12th, and 17th and 18th teams. There are only two teams, however, where they differ in their rankings by more than two places: Essendon and GWS.

Eleven teams are now rated as above-average on MoSSBODS, and MoSHBODS,.

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2022 - Round 15 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 3:30PM SUNDAY

Port Adelaide by 9 points is MoSHPlay’s final opinion.

UPDATE 2:45PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay has it as just a two goal Pies win.

UPDATE 12:30PM SUNDAY

Adelaide by 19, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

Swans by 16, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 8PM FRIDAY

Essendon by 22, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 6:30PM FRIDAY

It’s the Dogs by just over 4 goals, if you trust MoSHPlay (and many, wisely, don’t)

UPDATE 7:15PM THURSDAY

At this point, MoSHPlay is the most extreme forecaster in only two games.


UPDATE 6:30PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Dees by 11 points.


UPDATE 7:30PM WEDNESDAY

It’s Melbourne by 2 goals, according to MoSHPlay.

2022 - Round 15 : Competitive

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This week comprises:

  • 3 games where the teams are separated by only 1 spot on the ladder

  • 3 games where the gap is 2 spots

  • 1 game where the gap is 3 spots, and

  • 2 games where the gap is 4 spots

That’s made for generally small TAB Bookmaker expected margins, including 3 of under a goal, and five more under three goals. The odd one out is the 25.5 handicap for North Melbourne playing Adelaide.

The overall average expected margin is just 12,7 points per game, which is low by general Round 15 standards, but curiously higher that the matching figure for the same round last season. It drops the all-season average expected margin to 18 points per game.

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2022 - Team Ratings After Round 14

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We have new number ones on both Systems again this week, as a stationary Melbourne has watched Geelong fall below it and allow it to retake top spot on MoSSBODS, and Western Bulldogs have clambered over that same falling Geelong and a stationary Melbourne to claim top spot on MoSHBODS.

Overall, eight teams moved places on MoSSBODS this week, and 15 did the same on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing only about the ranking of the 4th, 5th, 9th, 10th, and 15th through 18th teams. There are no teams, however, where they differ in their rankings by more than two places.

Eleven teams are now rated as above-average on MoSSBODS, and 12 teams on MoSHBODS, as it adds St Kilda to the list.

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2022 - Round 14 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

It’s Dogs by 4 points now, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 4PM SATURDAY

Cats by 47 points is MoSHPlay’s final opinion.


UPDATE 7:15PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay has the Saints by 15 points.

UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay is the extreme Margin Predictor in just two games, at this point.

UPDATE 6:45PM THURSDAY

Tigers by just 5 points, now, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 7PM WEDNESDAY

It’s Tigers by 6 points, according to MoSHPlay.

2022 - Round 14 : Final Byes

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Half of this week’s three games could conceivably go down to the final kick (spoiler: they won’t) as, according to my competition ladder, which i ordered firstly be competition points per game played, sees 4th play 9th, 7th play 12th, and 10th play 13th (but, also, 6th play 16th, 5th play 17th, and 11th play 14th)

Altogether, the average expected margin is just over 3-goals per game, which is a little high in the context of Round 14s from recent history, being the highest average for a Round 14 since 2018, although lower than every Round 14 average prior to that in our sample.

It keeps the all-season average expected margin at 18.4 points per game, which, if maintained, would be the highest average since 2018.

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2022 - Team Ratings After Round 13

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We have new number ones on both Systems this week, as Geelong has edged past a falling Melbourne to take that prime position.

Overall, twelve teams moved places on MoSSBODS this week, and nine did the same on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing only about the ranking of the Top 3, 6th, and 11th through 14th. There’s only one team, however, where they differ in their rankings by more than two places: Collingwood, who MoSSBODS ranks 7th and MoSHBODS 10th.

The same twelve teams are rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and on MoSHBODS.

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2022 - Round 13 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 2:30PM MONDAY

Dees by 15 points, according to MoSHPlay.


UPDATE 2:45PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay lands on Giants by 24 points.

UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

Lions by 19 points, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Carlton by 12 points.

UPDATE 6:45PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Richmond by 10 points for tonight’s game, and is forecaster most-extreme in this and just one other game.

UPDATE 7PM WEDNESDAY

Richmond by 8 points, according to MoSHPlay