Twelve teams moved places on MoSSBODS this week, and seven did the same on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing about the ranking of all teams except those in 8th, 9th, 10th, 15th and 16th. The same twelve teams are now rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and on MoSHBODS.
The Top 5 teams on both Systems are, in order, Melbourne, Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Sydney, and Fremantle.
Read MoreFive of the six favourites won this week, but only Bookie Knows Best recorded a score of five amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters, which was enough to see it draw level with MoSSBODS_Marg and MoSHBODS_Marg atop the Leaderboard. Those three are now on 74 from 105 (71%).
Read MoreFreo by just 3 points, according to MoSHPlay.
Pies by just 5 points, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay ends at Dees by 20 points.
Suns by 33 points, according to MoSHPlay.
Adelaide by 37 points, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 5 points.
MoSHPlay’s initial forecasts contain three that are the most extreme of all the Predictors, but only significantly so in the Gold Coast v North Melbourne game where it is 14 points below the bookmaker handicap.
The MoS twins are this week forecasting slightly higher scores than the bookmakers, with their average coming in at around 163 to 165 points per game.
Read MoreWe enter my least-favourite portion of the season, where essentially two rounds of football are played out over three weeks, just as the competition seemed to have reached an inflexion point.
The six games we have been offered include three that are expected to be won by 3-and-a-half goals or more, one that is expected to be won by about two goals, and just two that are expected to be won by about a goal or less.
Altogether that makes for an average expected margin of 20.5 points per game, which is a little high in the context of recent Round 12s, and especially so when compared to last year’s 11.8 points per game.
Read MoreEight teams moved places on MoSSBODS this week, and 13 did the same on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing only about which teams should be in 1st, 6th, 7th, 13th and 16th through 18th, but disagreeing by no more than two places about no team.
Melbourne remains first on both Systems, while MoSSBODS has Geelong in second and Western Bulldogs in third and MoSHBODS has Western Bulldogs in second and Geelong in third.
The same twelve teams are now rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and on MoSHBODS.
Read MoreThe whole sixes and sevens joke is getting tiresome, but it was yet another week where those were the exclusive scores of the Head-to-Head Tipsters. MoSHPlay_Marg was the lone six from nine scorer, which left the Leaderbaord for this group largely unchanged.
Read MoreMoSHPlay lands on Port Adelaide by 33 points to finish the round.
Now it’s Carlton by 5 points, according to MoSHPlay.
Saints by 40 points, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay has finished at Lions by 32 points, and Geelong by 36 points.
MoSHPlay has finished at Swans by 9 points.
MoSHPlay is, at this stage, the most-extreme forecaster in four games this week, including a contrarian tip for Hawthorn over Gold Coast.
The MoS twins are this week forecasting generally similar scores to the bookmakers, with their average coming in at about 164 to 165 points per game.
Read MoreLast weekend, the average expected victory margin was just under 27 points per game, and the actual average victory margin was 29 points per game. This weekend, the expected average is slightly higher at 27.6 points per game, so we shouldn’t be too surprised if we wake up on Monday morning having seen a fairly similar set of results. Or not, of course.
Six of the contests this week carry handicaps of between 28.5 and 46.5 points, and only two carry single-digit handicaps. As a consequence we have the highest single-round average expected margin for 2022 so far, and the highest for a Round 11 since 2018.
Read MoreEleven teams moved places on MoSSBODS this week, and ten did the same on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing only about which teams should be in 1st, 2nd, 8th, 9th, 12th, 17th and 18th though disagreeing by no more than two places about only Carlton (4 places) and Richmond (3 places).
Melbourne and Geelong remain first and second, respectively, on both Systems.
Eleven teams are rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and on MoSHBODS.
Read MoreIt was another week where the Head-to_Head Tipsters were at sixes and sevens, with five of them recording 6 from 9 results, and four of them 7 from 9. MoSSBODS_Marg was, again, one of the sixes, and MoSHBODS_Marg of the sevens, which allowed MoSHBODS_Marg to draw level with MoSSBODS_Marg on 63 from 90 (70%), one tip ahead of Bookie Knows Best, and two ahead of the RSMP twins.
Read MoreDockers by 26 points is MoSHPlay’s final opinion.
MoSHPlay has it as Lions by 12 points.
Still the Giants, according to MoSHPlay, but now by only 32 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at St Kilda by 20 points and Richmond by 16 points.
… and it’s Dogs by 12 points, according to MoSHPlay.
(Two games starting at the same time - who knew?)
Cats by 14 points is MoSHPlay’s final opinion.
MoSHPlay has switched to the Swans by 1 point.
MoSHPlay has the following forecasts, assuming that the final named teams are either:
The listed 22 plus the highest-rated Emergency, or
The listed 18 plus the five highest-rated Interchange
The MoS twins are this week forecasting generally similar scores to the bookmakers, with their average coming in at about 164 to 165 points per game.
Read MoreIf you’re a fan of close contests, you might want to look elsewhere this weekend, as only one of the nine contests is expected by the TAB bookmaker to be won by less than three goals.
Five of the contests carry handicaps of between 23.5 and a whopping 70.5 points, which has resulted in an all-game average expected victory margin of just under 27 points per game, which is both the highest for a single round this season, and the highest for a Round 10 since 2016.
Only the Friday game between the Blues and the Swans looks set to be anything but a comfortable win for the favourite.
Read MoreA lot more stability in the team rankings this week, as Just seven teams moved places on MoSSBODS this week, and the same number moved places on MoSHBODS, which left them agreeing about which teams should be in 1st and 2nd, 10th and 13th, and 15th through 18th.Ten teams moved places on MoSSBODS this week, and nine did the same on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing only about which teams should be in 1st, 2nd, 12th, 15th and 16th though disagreeing by no more than two places about the remaining 13 teams.
Melbourne and Geelong remain first and second, respectively, on both Systems.
Eleven teams are rated as above-average on MoSSBODS, and 10 teams on MoSHBODS.
Read MoreIt was a week where most Head-to_Head Tipsters were at sixes and sevens, but in the best way possible. MoSSBODS_Marg was one of the sixes, as was MoSHBODS_Marg, which left them both, respectively in 1st and 2nd place, but now one tip closer to Bookie Knows Best and the RSMP twins.
Read MoreMoSHPlay still favours the Giants, but now by only 7 points.
Fremantle by 7 points is MoSHPlay’s final opinion.
MoSHPlay finishes with the Cats winning by 4 points.
MoSHPlay now has the Tigers by 9 points.
MoSHPlay likes the Dogs even more now and is tipping them to win by 9 points.
MoSHPlay, for now, is the most extreme Margin Predictor in only two games, probably most notably in the GWS v Geelong game, where it has the Giants winning by 10 points.
The MoS twins are, again, forecasting generally lower scores than the bookmakers this week, with their average coming in about 3 to 4 points lower per game. Last week, as we’ll see, that turned out to be an astute assessment.
Read MoreIn what shapes as a challenging round for home team crowds, the TAB Bookmaker has installed away team favourites in eight of the nine games.
All but two of those favourites are expected to win by 10 points or more, and three of them by more than four goals, which has resulted in an all-game average expected victory margin of just over 21 points per game, which is both the second-highest for a single round this season, and the highest for a Round 9 since 2018.
And, if the current market trends are anything to go by, Round 9 might be even less competitive than these numbers would imply, since the latest average expected margin is about half a point a game higher.
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